The University of Houston released a poll on Tuesday that showed Republicans Donald Trump and Ted Cruz leading Democrats Kamala Harris and Colin Allred by 5 points and 4 points respectively in Texas with just three weeks to go before the 2024 general election.
Conducted by the Hobby School of Public Affairs from September 26 to October 10, the pollsters at UH found Railroad Commissioner Christi Craddick with a bigger lead over challenger Katherine Culbert than either Trump or Cruz had over their Democratic foes as the candidates headed into the stretch.
Craddick was favored by 48 percent of the likely voters in the UH survey compared to 41 percent who gave Culbert the nod. Eight percent of 1,329 likely Texas voters said they were still undecided on the RRC clash - the only non-judicial statewide contest on the November ballot here. The poll found that 2 percent planned to cast votes for a Libertarian contender while 1 percent said they supported the Green Party candidate in the race for a seat on the three-member commission that regulates the Texas oil and gas industry.
Cruz and Craddick both won their current posts initially in 2012 when they both beat Democratic opponents by 16 points. But Craddick defeated a Democrat by 10 percentage points in her last re-election bid in 2018 when Cruz survived a scare with a victory over Democrat Beto O'Rourke by a margin of less than 3 points.
Hillary Clinton lost to Trump by 9 percentage points in the Lone Star State in 2016. But Trump saw his winning margin dip below 6 percent here in the 2020 election that President Joe Biden won at the national level. Trump and Cruz have led Harris and Allred by 6.2 points and 3.6 points respectively in independent polling on the two federal contests in the past month.
According to the UH poll, Craddick has a bigger lead than either Cruz or Trump as function of the fact that Texas women are split evenly between the incumbent RRC commissioner and the Democratic challenger. Harris fared 5 points better than Trump with female voters here while Cruz trailed Allred by 7 points among women in Texas in the Hobby School poll. Trump and Cruz both led their Democratic opponents by 15 points among male voters in Texas.
The UH poll found Trump favored by 60 percent of likely Texas voters who are white. Thirty-eight of white likely voters here are backing the vice-president in the nation's second largest state. The poll found that 84 percent of the Black voters here support Harris compared to 14 percent for Trump. Cruz and Trump both were up by 22 percentage points over Allred and Harris among white likely voters in Texas.
But the pollsters found Hispanic voters in Texas almost evenly split among the two major White House contenders - with 47 percent for Trump and 46 percent for Harris.
Harris was the clear choice among younger Texas voters while older Texans favor Trump. The UH poll found 61 percent of Silent Generation and Baby Boom voters here in the former president camp while 61 percent of Generation Z voters intend to vote for Harris this fall.
Harris has new more Texas voters on her side in the poll - with a 16 point advantage over Trump among those who didn't vote in the presidential election in 2020.
Trump scored substantially higher than Harris on major issues including immigration and border security, the economy, crime and foreign affairs. Harris fared better on democracy, health care and abortion.
The 27-page analysis of the Hobby School survey dissects the findings in the three statewide contests in Texas in greater detail than other polls have done up to now. The UH poll results were in line with the averages that the candidates for president and U.S. Senate scored in Texas in three other polls so far this month.
Trump dished out a glowing endorsement to Cruz on Tuesday. "Ted is one of the strongest Senators in the Country on Border Security, whereas his Opponent, Colin Allred, is a Radical Open Border Extremist, who will put our Country, and Safety, LAST," Trump said in a social media post. "Ted, on the other hand, will ALWAYS put Texas, and America, FIRST," Trump said in another post on Truth Social. "Ted Cruz has my Complete and Total Endorsement - HE WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN!"
