New Poll Could Spell Trouble for GOP
and Incumbents on the Ballot in 2026
Capitol Inside
October 31, 2025
Republican Sid Miller has been a magnet for attention and controversy while serving for more than a decade as the Texas Agriculture Commissioner. The former world champion cowboy who rode bulls in college has been the only truly entertaining statewide official during that time in a Lone Star State where the bar is really low in that regard.
But the folksy farm and ranch boss is just another guy in the eyes of the lion's share of the Texas electorate based on a poll that the University of Texas released on Wednesday.
A dismal 69 percent of the voters who participated in the Texas Politics Project survey for October had no clue who the agriculture commissioner happens to be here in 2025.
The survey of 1,200 "self-declared" registered voters gave the impression that the Texas elections in 2026 are shaping up to be a problem for incumbent Republicans on the ballot in races that are potentially competitive in the primary and the general election alike. The survey that was taken over a span of 10 days this month detected growing discontent with the economy and rising consumer prices that voters blame to a large degree on President Donald Trump's tariffs.
That help explains why Governor Greg Abbott and other Republicans in statewide races were more unpopular than ever in the UT poll with the overall electorate when the views of voters from both major parties were taken into account. Abbott was a glaring case in point.
The poll includes a graph that showed the governor's approval rating at 39 percent compared to a disapproval mark of 50 percent. The Abbott approval rate spiked to an all-time high of 55 percent in a UT poll in December last year when 34 percent of the voters disapproved of his work. That represents a 16-point plunge in popularity in just 10 months for a governor who's been doing everything in his power to build his brand for a potential presidential run in 2028.
A separate line in the survey pegged Abbott's approval rate at 32 percent with a disapproval mark of 47 percent. Seventy-six percent of the GOP voters in the sample approved of the job that Abbott is doing compared to 13 percent who did not agree. Abbott's popularity among Republicans was down 6 points from February when his overall approval was a 16 percent higher than now.
Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick's popularity scores took an even bigger hit than Abbott's in the October poll. At 29 percent, Patrick's approval rate wad down 8 points from February. The powerful state Senate president's disapproval marks soared 14 points to 46 percent in the new polling at UT. Patrick's approval rating among Republicans was eight points lower in October than it was in February.
Attorney General Ken Paxton's overall approval mark fell 8 points in six months to 29 percent in October. But the AG's approval rating among GOP voters was 57 percent - the same as Patrick - in the poll this month when only 14 percent disapproved of his work. Sixty-two percent of Republicans voters approved of Paxton's performance in the February survey.
U.S. Senator John Cornyn, who Paxton is trying to oust in the GOP primary in March, had the lowest approval rating among the four most powerful Republicans who will be on the ballot next year. Cornyn had an overall approval mark of 25 percent to go with a disapproval rating at 49. The veteran solon's approval and disapproval scores had been 30 percent and 37 percent respectively in February.
But Cornyn's approval mark was 10 points lower among Republican voters than Paxton's at 47 percent. The good news for the senator is that his approval score among GOP voters was only two points than the February mark - the smallest singular decline among the major Republican candidates on the ballot in 2026. The pollsters indicated, however, that the increasing nasty tone of the battle between Cornyn and Paxton had not appeared to change their respective standings in the minds of voters.
While Abbott and Patrick will be prohibitive favorites to win primaries in re-election bids, they could be in jeopardy if the general election turns out to be as anti-incumbent as the early signs seem to say. All of the GOP statewide nominees could be in peril if voters are on edge about personal economic conditions as much as they appear now.
Incumbency could be more a liability than advantage in 2026 if the UT polling this month is on the mark as the most extensive and reliable source of data like this here. That could be true especially in the competition for statewide positions on the Texas ballot next year.
The UT poll measured the popularity of 10 major Republican politicos and a half-dozen Democrats including some that aren't running for anything in 2026 at this point in the countdown to the opening of the filing season for candidates in November. A grand total of two - Democratic State Rep. James Talarico of Austin and Republican U.S. Rep. Chip Roy of Austin - had a higher percentage of favorable ratings than unfavorables among all of the voters who participated in the Texas flagship university's latest poll.
Talarico - a candidate for the U.S. Senate - was viewed in a favorable light by 22 percent of the voters in the UT sample compared to 12 percent who turned thumbs down on him. But 65 percent had no opinion on Talarico either way - a potential problem sign with a mere four months to go before the primary election. Talarico's positive ratings were almost as high as those that U.S. Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton scored in the poll.
Roy - one of four Republicans competing to take Paxton's place as the Texas AG - was the only one of 15 GOP members in the UT poll that scored more favorable marks than the opposite. But it was close - with Roy rated favorably by 22 percent compared to unfavorables from 21 percent. Roy had substantially higher name ID than four GOP rivals in the state lawyer contest. Fifty-two percent of the Republican voters in the UT survey had no opinion on Roy while more than 80 percent were in the dark on primary foes Aaron Reitz and a pair of state senators in Joan Huffman of Houston and Mayes Middleton of Galveston.
Thirty-one percent of the participants correctly named Miller as the incumbent on the question on who serves as agriculture commissioner in Texas. Seven percent guessed that Christi Craddick was the Texas farm and ranch boss while 4 percent chose Glenn Hegar on the menu of options for agriculture commissioner on the UT poll's pop quiz. Three percent took a guess with Dustin Burrows as their pick for ag commissioner.
Craddick, for the record, is a Texas Railroad Commission member who's running for state comptroller next year. Hegar is a former Texas and House member who worked as the comptroller himself for 10 years before signing on during the summer to be the chancellor for the Texas A&M University System.
Burrows has been the Texas House speaker since January. Fifty-five percent of the Texans in the Texas Politics Project survey admitted they didn't know the agriculture commissioner here is without guessing at the other names on the poll's multiple choice quiz.
U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Dallas fared best among the Democrats whose support was measured in the University of Texas survey this month. Crockett received a favorable rating from 62 percent of the Democrats in the poll while a mere 6 percent rated her unfavorably. Crockett is weighing a U.S. Senate bid in 2026.
Democrat Colin Allred - the party's nominee for U.S. Senate against Ted Cruz last fall - had favorable ratings from 22 percent of the voters from both parties and an equal number of unfavorables. Allred was viewed favorably by 59 percent of the Democratic voters with a negative rating of 10 percent.
more to come ...
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