GOP at Risk of Losing Seats in Texas
after New Map Fails First Court Test

Supreme Court Blocks Order on Texcas Map

Capitol Inside
November 21, 2025

Governor Greg Abbott and the Republicans in Austin are counting on the U.S. Supreme Court to raise a congressional redistricting plan from the grave to avoid another round of voting in the current districts on a battlefield where Democrats would expect to break even or pick up seats at the polls in Texas a year from now.

The Republicans are counting on the U.S. Supreme Court to save them from an embarrassing defeat that would be unprecedented if Texas is forced to conduct the 2026 congressional elections in the districts they approved four years ago on a map their leaders declared to be a fair representation of the state.

The GOP suffered a potentially fatal setback on Tuesday in the redistricting war that its leaders in Texas started during the summer when a trio of federal judges temporarily invalidated a congressional map that emerged from a special session in August.

Attorney General Ken Paxton decried the panel's ruling as a product of the "radical left" - which in the case at hand is a Republican who Trump picked for the federal bench in U.S. Judge Jeff Brown, the author of the majority that blocked the state from holding the 2026 congressional elections on the new map. In a 2-1 ruling that the panel's other GOP appointee excoriated in a lone dissent, Brown declared the 2025 map as an unconstitutional example of illegal racial gerrymandering and ordered the state to keep the current voting districts in place for next year's vote.

The AG appealed the decision to the U.S. Supreme Court and expressed confidence that the state would prevail. Governor Greg Abbott and the Republicans appear guardedly confident that the nation's high court, which has been a rubber stamp for the president, will overturn the lower court ruling and clear the way for the U.S. House elections here in 2026 on the new map.

The opening installment of Capitol Inside's Texas Races to Watch for the lower house of Congress in 2026 ranks contests that have the potential to be competitive in separate sets that are based on the new map and the voting districts that the GOP-controlled Legislature created in 2021. The rankings reflect the shares of the vote that the Republican and Democratic nominees for president and U.S. Senate scored in Texas in the general election in 2024.

Trump won in every Texas congressional district on the list of the most potentially competitive contests for the U.S. House here next year. The map that emerged from a special summer session is designed to create five new seats for the GOP based on Trump's performance in the districts its leaders and lawmakers targeted with substantial remakes. The results of the voting on the U.S. Senate race in Texas last year is more realistic and credible measuring stick for 2026.

The 2021 Map

The warring parties would break even on the current map if the Republicans won every congressional seat in Texas in districts that U.S. Senator Ted Cruz carried last fall while Democrats ran the table in those that challenger Colin Allred carried. But the political climate has been turning against the GOP in recent weeks and months - and Democrats would be in position to flip two or three U.S. House seats here if their nominees prevailed in districts where Cruz received fewer than 55 percent of the vote a year ago.

The district that's currently represented by Republican U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales of San Antonio is the most vulnerable red seat on the old and current map in Congressional District 23 where Cruz beat Allred by less than 9 points with 53 percent of the vote last November. The Republicans probably would still target Democratic U.S. Reps. Henry Cuellar of Laredo and Vicente Gonzales of Brownsville if the current map stays in place for the upcoming elections. But the GOP's chances of converting the South Texas districts to red would slim at best on the map from 2021 in the absence of a sharp turnabout in Republican fortunes in the coming months.

The best case scenario for the GOP on the 2021 map would be to break even with Democrats on the U.S. House battlefield here. But Democrats could have realistic shots in two or three congressional districts a year from now if the 2026 vote is as bad for the GOP as the midterm election during Trump's first term turned out to be in 2018. Democrats picked up a dozen seats in the Texas House and flipped two state Senate districts and two more in the U.S. House that year. Trump wasn't anywhere near as controversial or potentially radioactive in his initial stint in the White House as he's been in the past few months. A tsunami that dwarfs the blue wave in Texas in 2018 could be a possibility as a consequence.

Safest Current Bet: Tie - The major parties break even when Republicans win every U.S. House district that Cruz carried in 2024 while Democrats win in all of the districts where Allred beat the incumbent senator. The GOP retains current 25-13 advantage over Democrats in U.S. House seats in the 2026 general election.

Best Case Scenario for Republicans: GOP +2 - The Republicans win in every district that Trump won in 2024. The GOP boosts its congressional delegation majority in Texas to 27-11.

Worst Case Scenario for Republicans: DEMS +3 - The Democrats win every congressional seat in districts where Cruz failed to win by more than 11 percentage points in 2024. Democrats would flip one seat if they prevailed in every district where Cruz failed to receive 4 percent of the 2024 vote or more. California Democrats flip all five targeted seats on a retaliatory map that voters there approved this month. The GOP majority in the Texas delegation to the U.S. House shrinks to 23-15. Texas Republicans suffer a net loss of 7 or 8 seats in the head-up competition with California Democrats in the redistricting showdown that originated here in 2025.

The 2025 Map

The five-seat gain that Texas Republicans envisioned in the congressional competition in 2026 could prove to be an unrealistic goal because the new map that's on hold was built on the assumption that Republicans would fare as well a year from now in South Texas and border areas a year ago when Trump's popularity had peaked.

Trump's support from 2024 is worthless as a measuring stick for projecting the vote in 2026 as a consequence. Trump has clearly been an aberration - and he has the potential to be down-ballot liability at the rate he's been going in recent months. The U.S. Senate battle between Cruz and Allred is a more realistic gauge for partisan expectations 11 months from now.

The GOP could expect to flip a pair of U.S. House seats in the Houston and Dallas areas in a potential worse-case scenario if the nation's high court brings the 2025 map back to life. Cruz won by nearly a dozen points or more in the districts that are represented by Democratic U.S. Reps. Julie Johnson and Al Green.

Safest Current Bet: GOP +3 - The Republicans win every seat in districts where Cruz beat Allred by 2 percentage points or more in 2024. Republicans pick up districts that are currently represented by Democrats Julie Johnson, Al Green and Greg Casar. The GOP advantage in the Texas delegation expands to 28-10.

Best Case Scenario for Republicans: GOP +5 - The Republicans win in every district that Cruz won in 2024 and have 30-8 majority in Texas congressional delegation after the 2026 vote.

Worst Case Scenario for Republicans: GOP +2 - The Democrats win every seat in districts where Cruz received less than 51 percent of the vote in 2024. The Republicans hold a 27-11 edge in the Texas congressional delegation. California Democrats flip all five targeted seats on a retaliatory map that voters there approved this month. Texas Republicans suffer a net loss of 2 in the head-up competition with California Democrats in the redistricting showdown that originated here in 2025.