Crockett 11th-Hour Senate Quest Triggers
Chain Reaction with Preacher as Successor

Capitol Inside
December 10, 2025

GOP Incumbents vs. Challengers 12 DEM Incumbents vs. Challengers 6     GOP Incumbents Unopposed 7 DEM Incumbents Unopposed 2     Open Races - Current GOP Districts 6 Open Races - Current DEM Districts 4

The Democratic Party's two hottest stars in Texas are betting their political lives on a gambit that one is destined to lose in the primary election or subsequent runoff and the other may have little or no chance to win next fall with competing quests for the seat that U.S. Senator John Cornyn is seeking again in 2026.

State Rep. James Talarico of Austin appeared to be on track for the Democratic nomination in the competition for the U.S. Senate before U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Dallas became a potentially insurmountable obstacle on Monday when she filed to run in the race at the top of the Texas ticket next year as well.

Crockett's last-minute emergence in the Senate race was no surprise by the time that she filed right before the deadline after a week or two teasing such a bid. But her decision to forego a re-election race in Congressional District 30 in favor the Senate contest effectively relegated Talarico from all-but-presumed nominee to the underdog role based on the starting dynamics in a Democratic primary that Crockett's own polling shows she will win.

While Crockett's eleventh-hour jockeying and eventual decision guaranteed that one if not both of the Texas Democrats with the most star power and national visibility will be out of office after the general election less than 11 months from now. But Crockett's dive into the Senate ring had dominos falling from Austin to Dallas where Colin Allred launched a comeback campaign for Congress after running for the U.S. Senate for months as the Democratic nominee against U.S. Senator Ted Cruz in 2024.

Allred apparently had a promise from Crockett to back him for the U.S. House after his abrupt exit from the Senate candidate lineup as the deadline for filing approached on Monday evening. But there was a catch. Allred wouldn't file to run in Congressional District 30 where Crockett has been the representative for the past three years. Allred, who represented Congressional District 32 for six years before the Senate bid, set his sights instead on Congressional District 33 where U.S. Rep. Marc Veasey of Fort Worth had been based since 2013.

Veasey filed to seek a new term in CD 33 when the current map was still in play pending a decision from the U.S. Supreme Court on the redistricting plan that Republicans in Austin approved in a summer special session. But the Republicans removed his home base of Tarrant County from CD 33 on the new map, which the nation's highest court upheld several days before the Texas filing deadline. Veasey could have run in CD 33 but cancelled his plans for re-election and launched a bid for Tarrant County judge instead.

U.S. Rep. Julie Johnson of Dallas, the CD 32 representative on the soon-to-be-defunct map, filed for the CD 33 race instead late Monday at the Dallas Democratic Party where Allred signed up for the contest along with a pair of lesser-known contenders in Zeeshan Hafeez and Carlos Quintanilla. Johnson - an LGBTQ community champion at the state and federal levels - may have a slight edge over Allred in a race on which Crockett could have impact if she makes a concerted effort on his behalf. Allred and Crockett are both Black.

Allred, Johnson and Veasey all could have run for the U.S. House again in Crockett's current home turf of CD 30. But they all appeared to defer to Crockett and her handpicked successor - Frederick Haynes III - the senior pastor at her church in the competition for CD 30. The list of Democratic primary contenders in CD 30 includes Rodney LaBruce and former Texas House member Barbara Mallory Caraway.

The CD 33 battle that pits the current and previous representatives from CD 32 against each other tops the list of Texas Races to Watch for Congress with incumbents on the defensive in the Democratic primary election March 3.

The second-ranked primary fight for the U.S. House on the Democrats' side features veteran U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar of Laredo against a pair of challengers in Congressional District 28 a week after the incumbent received a pardon from President Donald Trump on bribery and conspiracy charges on which he was set to stand trial during the spring. Trump apparently thought Cuellar would switch parties to show his gratitude for the act of mercy before he filed to run again as a Democrat.

U.S. Rep. Sylvia Garcia of Houston is dueling former Texas House member Jarvis Johnson in the first round in Congressional District 29 as the fight that's rated third on the races to watch with incumbent Democrats.

more to come ...