Texas House Majority May Back in Play
in Wake of Mid-Term Disaster for GOP

Capitol Inside
November 7, 2025

The Republican majority in the Texas House could be in serious peril a year from now if President Donald Trump's popularity continues to plunge and Democrats fare as well on the legislative battleground here as they did across the country up and down the ballot in the mid-term elections this week.

Based on Tuesday's disastrous performances by the GOP's candidates in swing states and others that are darker shades of red, the Democrats could be in position to flip as many or more Texas House seats as they did when the last blue wave roared through the state in the first mid-term election on Trump's watch in 2018.

According to a Capitol Inside analysis, the Democrats in texas would convert 20 House seats from red to blue in 2026 if they won in every district where U.S. Senator Ted Cruz prevailed by 10 points or less last fall in a fight with Democratic challenger Colin Allred.

Democrats would pick up no less than 33 Texas House seats if the minority party's candidates wrestled them away from Republicans in every district where Cruz beat Allred by 15 points or less in 2024.

With the GOP holding an 88-62 advantage over Democrats on the current House roster, the Democratic Party would seize the lower chamber majority for the first time in nearly two dozen years if its nominees won every race next year in districts where Cruz defeated Allred by fewer than 6 percentage points.

That would give the Democrats 76 House seats while Republicans would be relegated to minority status with only 74 when the Legislature convenes in regular session in 2027. The west wing of the statehouse in Austin would have no majority if the Democrats picked up 13 seats in a development that would leave both major parties with 75 apiece.

Three Republicans - State Reps. Denise Villalobos of Corpus Christi, Angie Chen Button of Garland and the GOP nominee in a district where Rep. John Lujan of San Antonio isn't running again - would be doomed at the polls in 2026 if Democrats won every seat in districts that Allred carried last year.

The list of House Republicans in districts that Cruz won by fewer than 5 points a year ago includes State Reps. Marc LaHood of San Antonio, Morgan Meyer of Dallas, Janie Lopez of San Benito, Mano DeAyala of Houston, Lacey Hull of Houston and Caroline Harris Davila of Round Rock.

GOP State Reps. John McQueeney of Fort Worth, Ben Bumgarner of Flower Mound, Mark Dorazio of San Antonio, Mike Schofield of Katy, Keresa Richardson of McKinney, Jeff Leach of Allen and Matt Shaheen of Plano could all be in jeopardy as well in districts where Cruz beat Allred by margins between 5 and 10 percentage points.

Very few if any of the incumbent Republicans in the Texas House had cause for any significant angst over re-election races as recently as last month. But they were jolted by a shocking wake up call on Wednesday morning with the results of the Democrats' sweeps in major races across the nation and contests lower on the ballot that hadn't been on radar screens until now.

The most glaring setback for the Texas Republicans came when California voters approved a new congressional map that Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom championed there. The California redistricting plan is designed to give the Democrats five more seats in the U.S. House - a move that was designed initially to offset the gains that the GOP expects on a map that the Republicans in Texas adopted during the summer.

After Tuesday's vote, however, the GOP may have shots now at flipping two U.S. House seats on a map they drew for a gain of five. The California election put Texas Governor Greg Abbott and the Republicans here in position to take the brunt of the blame if Democrats take the U.S. House majority back in the general election next year.

Abbott has sought to conceal the embarrassment he has a right to feel after being upstaged badly by Newsom in a redistricting war that the Texas Republicans triggered in a collective attempt to please the president and march dutifully to his commands. The Texas governor has been mum so far on the California map vote while focusing his wrath and energy instead of Zohran Mamdani's victory in the New York mayor's race.

Democrats owned the night after the polls closed on Tuesday - with blowouts in Virginia and historic victories from Mississippi to Georgia. In a possible preview of what to expect in Texas legislative races next fall, Democrats flipped 13 state House seats in Virginia where they will have their largest majority in 40 years.

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee - which is known as the DLCC - poured more than $2 million into the House races in Virginia where both sides thought the voting would be close. The DLCC president Heather Williams explained on Thursday how and why the Democrats crushed their GOP rivals at the polls this week in Virginia and other locations.

“The earthquake wins last night reaffirmed that voters rebuke GOP extremism and that the affordability crisis remains the issue that is on voters’ minds,” Williams said in a statement.

"This was a do-not-take-anything-for-granted, very disciplined, very strategic campaign effort, and it is indicative of how we are running campaigns all across the country," Williams added. "We are excited about the trifecta that is being delivered in Virginia with now Governor-elect (Abigail) Spanberger, and we know that when they head into session in January, there’s going to be a lot of good things happening for Virginians.”

Democrats posted their first statewide wins in races at the state level in Georgia in almost 20 years with a pair of victories by Democratic candidates who'd run as underdogs. Democrats brought a crashing end to a Republican super majority in the Mississippi state Senate when they flipped two seats there this week.

Texas Republicans have to look no farther than the Houston area to see what they may expect here a year from now barring dramatic changes in the way Trump is leading in his second term. The Democrats swept the school board races in the Cypress-Fairbanks district where the GOP had been immersed in a culture war.

more to come ...