Texas House Majority May Be in Play
in Wake of Mid-Term Disaster for GOP

Capitol Inside
November 26, 2025

The GOP majority in the Texas House could be in peril a year from now if President Donald Trump's popularity continues to slide and Democrats fare as well on the legislative battleground here as they did across the country up and down the ballot in the mid-term elections this month.

A Capitol Inside analysis of the Texas election in 2024 found that Democrats would pick up three House seats at the polls next fall if they won every seat in districts that Colin Allred carried in an unsuccessful bid to oust U.S. Senator Ted Cruz at the polls last fall. The Republicans - in contrast - could cut their losses under such a scenario if they flipped the only seat that Democrats control now in a district where Cruz won a year ago.

Democratic State Rep. Eddie Morales of Eagle Pass may have been the most vulnerable incumbent on either side of the aisle if substantial GOP gains that the GOP made in border districts in 2024 with Trump topping the ticket represented a permanent alignment of the electorate in heavily Hispanic areas. Texas Republicans based projections for a five-seat gain on the congressional battlefield here on the historic support that Trump garnered in South Texas and districts along the Rio Grande a year ago.

But the president's popularity has plunged in recent months to an all-time low in Texas and beyond amid a backlash over Trump's tariffs, rising consumer prices that he promised to bring down and the close relationship he had with Jeffrey Epstein and his fight to keep the files on that under wrap. Trump has appeared to be playing mind games with MAGA with unexpected moves like a meeting that he hosted with New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani at the White House last week. Trump vowed to help enact Mamdani's agenda that Republicans like Texas Governor Greg Abbott have portrayed as socialism at its worst.

The biggest problem for the Republicans heading into 2026 is the fact that Trump is not on the ticket again, has nothing to lose and faces no threat of individual consequences for his moves. And Trump has shown little or no interest in taking the kind of dramatic action that it might take to reverse the GOP's fortunes in the next 11 months. The tentative prognosis for the ever-critical Texas House battlefield in 2026 isn't that good for the ruling Republicans as a result.

The Texas Races to Watch for the state House in the 2026 general election reflect the share of the vote that Trump and Cruz received last year in districts that will or could be competitive next fall. But it appears increasingly evident that Trump has been an aberration - and he has the potential to be a major down-ballot liability in 2026 if he fails to turn his approval marks around to help Republicans get back on a winning track.

So the scenarios that we explore here in the fight for control of the west wing in Austin revolve on Cruz's showing in House districts in the fall of 2024. That is a more realistic gauge of what both parties can expect a year from now in races for the Texas Legislature's lower chamber. Here are three possible outcomes ...

1. Democrats +3. The minority party safely defends all of the House seats that Democrats currently represent and its nominees prevail in districts where Allred defeated Cruz in 2024. Democrats would flip the seats that GOP State Reps. Denise Villalobos of Corpus Christi, Angie Chen Button of Garland and John Lujan of San Antonio currently hold if this scenario materialized at the polls in 2026. The GOP would have an 85-65 edge in House seats with this scenario.

2. Democrats +2. The Democratic Party picks up the three seats in districts that Allred won to offset a loss by Morales as the only Democrat in a district where Cruz prevailed.

3. Democrats +11. The Democrats would have to flip 13 House seats and win in every district that it controls now. Democrats would come close to that hypothetical threshold in a chamber that the GOP has controlled for nearly 23 years if they successfully defend all of the 62 seats they hold now and win in every House district where Cruz lost or beat Allred by fewer than 5 percentage points in 2024. Republicans would retain the majority - barely - in a chamber where they'd have an 77-63 advantage if this scenario materialized.

4. Democrats +19. The Democrats win in every district they have now and pick up every seat in districts that Cruz lost or won by less than 10 points last year.

5. Republicans +1. The GOP wins in all of the House districts it controls now and wrestles the House District 74 seat from the Democrats in the only district they have now where Cruz won last year.

6. Republicans +8. The GOP picks up every House seat in districts where Trump defeated Kamala Harris in 2024. Seven of those are located on the border with Mexico while one is based in a heavily-Hispanic district in Harris County.