Crystal Ball Sees Overtime Likely
in Most Expensive House Contests

Texas Campaign Cash
Texas Races to Watch

Capitol Inside
February 1, 2022

Texas House contender Shelley Barineau unveiled a new television commercial on Monday with a scene that shows a couple of young men with dark hair climbing at high speed up a massive metal fence with giant packages strapped to their backs.

"At the border, Shelley will fight for more law enforcement and walls to stop gangs, drugs and human traffickers from flooding into Harris County," a narrator vows in the 30-second Barineau spot.

A Houston attorney and longtime party activist, Barineau was the most heavily-armed of five Republicans in an open House District 133 race heading into January. While Barineau's position on securing the border is identical to the stance that every single other GOP candidate on the 2022 ballot in Texas has taken, she could afford a larger budget for media production complete with the casting of actors who double as stuntmen in roles as mules for violent drug cartels who are moving their product over the Rio Grande with the state's largest city on their cell phone GPS.

With Barineau and primary rivals Will Franklin and Mano DeAyala ranked among the top 10 House candidates in fundraising in 2021, the battle for the seat in the richest part of the Houston area had the second highest price tag for a contested race for the Texas Legislature's lower chamber at the start of January. Barineau and her four first-round foes generated more than $1.36 million combined for their bids in the second half of last year.

But the shootout for the seat that veteran GOP State Rep. Jim Murphy is relinquishing has the potential to be the most expensive and competitive primary fight in Texas history with all five Republican hopefuls raising a sufficient amount of money to be viable before voters go to the polls five weeks from today.

The GOP clash in HD 133 ranks as the top House race to watch in round one - and Barineau appears to have the best shot for a spot in a spring runoff with former Houston City Council member Greg Travis, DeAyala and Franklin for the second. Travis - despite a distant fourth in the campaign money chase in 2021 - might have the second best chance at overtime based on an inherent advantage in name identification in the wealthy central city district.

A highly fuzzy Capitol Inside crystal ball sees a runoff on the horizon in House District 122 as well as the primary fight with the highest price tag at the start of last month. While former San Antonio City Council member Elisa Chan could win outright on March 1 based on the size of her war chest and name recognition alone, Adam Blanchard could pose the biggest threat in a GOP primary showdown that also features ex-Bexar County Republican chairman Mark Dorazio.

The GOP quartet in HD 122 that also includes banker Mark Cuthbert rounded up almost $1.4 million in 2021 with Chan, whose family came to the U.S. from Taiwan, accounting for six out of every 10 dollars raised from donors and herself last year in the race to replace outgoing Republican State Rep. Lyle Larson in a district on the northside of the Alamo City.

Blanchard - the president of the Texas Trucking Association - depended exclusively on supporters for more than $289,000 that he reported raising in 2021. Dorazio floated his campaign in HD 122 with a$150,000 loan to go with almost $33,000 in contributions.

Overtime could be inevitable in a four-way Republican primary fight that includes former Austin City Council member Ellen Troxclair and Capital City police officer Justin Berry as the frontrunners based on the amount of campaign cash that they received in 2021. Troxclair, who'd planned to run for the state Senate before a shift to the House District 19 race, raised more from supporters last year than any candidate for the House in a contested primary with $510,000 in contributions that she reported to the Texas Ethics Commission last month.

Barineau was next with donations of nearly $328,000 in 2021 in two months as a candidate on top of $175,000 in personal loans for a total take of more than a half-million dollars last year. Franklin, who's pitching himself as the most qualified HD 133 contender who's not an attorney or professional politician, raised almost a quarter-million dollars from donors in 2021 for a war chest that included $150,000 in personal loans.

Veteran State Rep. Ryan Guillen of Rio Grande City would appear to have a good chance to win in March after raising more money for a re-election campaign in 2021 than any of his colleagues in the west wing with first round opposition. But this is Guillen's first campaign as a Republican after a party switch last fall in a South Texas district that was drawn in special session for the GOP. While Guillen would be a heavy favorite on paper in the new red version of House District 31, conservative challenger Mike Monreal might have a shot at OT this spring.

Democratic State Reps. Richard Peña Raymond of Laredo and James Talarico of Austin appear poised to crush primary challengers as the only other incumbents that ranked among the top 10 in total fundraising for re-election bids last year in House District 42 and House District 50 respectively.

State Rep. Glenn Rogers of Graford appears to be the only incumbent who could be the underdog in round one on paper in a field of four that features party activist Mike Olcott of Aledo. Olcott - the leader of a conservative group in Parker County - ranked fourth overall in fundraising after launching a bid in House District 60 with $400,000 in personal funds.

Republicans Laura Hill of Justin and Cary Moon of Fort Worth look like the initial frontrunners in the primary election for the House District 93 seat that GOP State Rep. Matt Krause is giving up in favor of a race for Tarrant County district attorney in 2021. The Republican battle in HD 93 had the seventh steepest price tag in 2021 with Hill, Moon and Nate Schatzline raising nearly $382,000 collectively.

Round Rock Republicans Patrick McGuiness and Nelson Jarrin appear to be the best bets on paper in a primary scramble in House District 52 that includes Caroline Harris of Austin and Jonathan Schober of Hutto as the fifth most expensive House race at the outset of 2022.

The forecast for Texas House and Senate races in the upcoming primary election will be rolled out in installments and updated as needed between now and the primary election in five weeks.