Texas Dems Leading in Nine Red Swing Districts
in House Majority Battle with Avalanche Potential

By Mike Hailey
Capitol Inside Editor
August 12, 2020

Texas Competitive Races in General Election

Republican dominance could be coming to an end in the Texas House based on polling on both sides of the aisle that shows Democrats winning or close in a dozen races with with boundless potential for more.

With the growing potential for a blue blowout nationwide, Democrats could double that number if an incoming wave triggers a snowball effect in the competition for control of the Legislature's lower chamber in 2021.

The House Democratic Campaign Committee's polling has its team up in nine fights for current Republican seats while Democrats are close behind in two others.

GOP State Reps. Morgan Meyer of Dallas and Matt Shaheen of Plano appear to be in big trouble while State Reps. Steve Allison of San Antonio, Angie Chen Button of Garland, Sarah Davis, Craig Goldman of Fort Worth, Sam Harless of Houston, Matt Krause of Fort Worth and Jeff Leach of Allen are behind as well.

The Democrats only identified three of the targeted districts that were polled including races that Allison, Meyer and Button were losing to challengers Celia Montoya of San Antonio, Joanna Cattanach of Dallas and Brandy Chambers of Garland by nine, five and two points respectively.

Republicans also appear to be running as underdogs in three open races for GOP seats in the the Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth areas.

With State Reps. Celia Israel of Austin and Trey Martinez Fischer of San Antonio in the lead, the HDCC is expanding the reach of the polling amid expectations of flipping between 12 and 16 seats in the November general election.

Democrats led by almost five points on average in the nine swing races they were leading while two Democratic nominees trailed by an average of three in targeted fights.

While Democrats will take the House back with a net gain of nine seats, as many as two dozen districts that are red now could be within their reach in a state where the coronavirus crisis has been a killer for the Republicans.

The Capitol Inside crystal ball is sticking for now with a projected 17-seat gain for the Democrats on the House battlefield with the election less than three months from now. But we won't be surprised if that goes up barring a dramatic turn of fortunes for President Donald Trump and the GOP.

GOP polls that haven't been made public have found Shaheen at risk of being trounced by Democrat Sharon Hirsch of Plano while Button and Leach are trailing by smaller margins in competitive races.