Fragile Forcast Has 12 GOP Rep Defeats
Amid Abbott and Paxton Feeding Frenzy
Texas House and Senate Fundraising
Capitol Inside
February 14, 2024
|
| 1 |
HD 2 |
Abbott
Paxton
Miller |
Brent Money
$428,526
$28,299 |
| 2 |
HD 11 |
Abbott |
Joanne Shofner
$406,731
$97,187 |
| 3 |
HD 65 |
Paxton
Miller |
Mitch Little
$402,090
$148,296 |
| 4 |
HD 21 |
Patrick
Paxton
Miller |
David Covey
$399,396
$78,685 |
| 5 |
HD 60 |
Abbott
Paxton
Miller |
Mike Olcott
$379,416
$115,860 |
| 6 |
HD 71 |
Paxton |
Liz Case Pickens
$370,423
$322,559 |
| 7 |
HD 1 |
Abbott
Miller |
Chris Spencer
$369,400
$245,052 |
| 8 |
HD 64 |
Paxton
Miller |
Andy Hopper
$282,550
$108,968 |
| 9 |
HD 86 |
|
Jamie Haynes
$276,157
$185,913 |
| 10 |
HD 121 |
Abbott
Paxton
Miller |
Marc LaHood
$229,698
$89,982 |
| 11 |
HD 26 |
Paxton
Miller |
Matt Morgan
$226,478
$92,956 |
| 12 |
HD 61 |
Paxton |
Keresa Richardson
$199,760
$35,723 |
| 13 |
HD 18 |
Abbott
Paxton
Miller |
Janis Holt
$181,572
$91,325 |
| 14 |
HD 64 |
|
Elaine Hays
$173,850
$66,147 |
| 15 |
HD 73 |
Paxton
Miller |
Kyle Biedermann
$166,388
$92,033 |
| 16 |
HD 44 |
Abbott
Paxton |
Alan Schoolcraft
$160,400
$124,635 |
| 17 |
HD 58 |
Abbott
Patrick
Paxton |
Helen Kerwin
$142,327
$83,010 |
| 18 |
HD 66 |
Paxton |
Wayne Richard
$133,079
$98,275 |
| 19 |
HD 133 |
Paxton
Miller |
John Perez
$131,815
$12,077 |
| 20 |
HD 108 |
Patrick
Paxton |
Barry Wernick
$131,414
$82,602 |
| 21 |
HD 55 |
Abbott
Paxton |
Hillary Hickland
$128,401
$59,257 |
| 22 |
HD 15 |
|
Skeeter Hubert
$127,043
$21,205 |
| 23 |
HD 33 |
Paxton
Miller |
Katrina Pierson
$124,483
$79,384 |
| 24 |
HD 67 |
Paxton
Miller |
Daren Meis
$119,022
$59,196 |
| 25 |
HD 83 |
Paxton
Miller |
Wade Cowan
$117,010
$22,872 |
| 26 |
HD 61 |
Paxton |
Chuck Branch
$116,352
$56,351 |
| 27 |
HD 62 |
Paxton
Miller |
Shelley Luther
$95,649
$339,156 |
| 28 |
HD 17 |
Paxton |
Tom Glass
$93,460
$47,875 |
| 29 |
HD 33 |
|
Dennis London
$6,159
$81,627
$20,764 |
| 29 |
HD 5 |
Paxton |
Jeff Fletcher
$68,600
$36,677 |
| 30 |
HD 128 |
Paxton
Miller |
Bianca Gracia
$67,957
$0 |
| 31 |
HD 88 |
Paxton
Miller |
Karen Post
$67,344
$55,995 |
| 32 |
HD 63 |
Paxton |
Vincent Gallo
$64,879
$7,121 |
| 33 |
HD 91 |
Paxton
Miller |
David Lowe
$64,455
$0 |
| 34 |
HD 138 |
Paxton
Miller |
Jared Woodfill
$61,665
$6,147 |
| 35 |
HD 1 |
Paxton |
Dale Huls
$57,976
$6,186 |
| 36 |
HD 72 |
Abbott |
Stormy Bradley
$56,385
$56,750 |
| 37 |
HD 85 |
Paxton |
Tim Greeson (Inc)
$53,862
$6,533 |
| 38 |
HD 89 |
Paxton
Miller |
Abraham George
$52,945
$35,810 |
| 39 |
HD 20 |
Paxton |
Janine Chapa
$38,412
$20,279 |
| 40 |
HD 9 |
Paxton |
Paulette Carson
$29,123
$7,622 |
| 41 |
HD 99 |
Paxton |
Jack Reynolds
$27,668
$25,733 |
| 42 |
HD 68 |
Paxton
Miller |
Kerri Kingsbery
$19,941
$47,617 |
| 43 |
HD 4 |
Paxton |
Joshua Feuerstein
$13,685
$8,049 |
| |
|
|
|
| Source: Texas Ethics Commission |
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Texas House leaders are privately concerned about the prospects for double-digit losses in the GOP primary election in 2024 despite attempts to create the appearance of a well-oiled incumbent protection effort that is poised to prevail in almost every competitive race.
With only six days to go before the start of early voting, Speaker Dade Phelan's team fears that a dozen or more House Republicans who its views as allies could be in peril to some degree in a worst case scenario for the March 5 primary election.
The number of potentially endangered GOP representatives could be closer to 25 in primary contests in districts where the House leadership team players are facing unprecedented attacks from either Governor Greg Abbott or Attorney General Ken Paxton or both.
Abbott and Paxton - with assists from Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller and their idol Donald Trump in some cases - have transformed the 2024 primary into the all-time cannibal fest for a political party in the Lone Star State.
All of the House Republicans in the 25 contests that are ranked as the most competitive on the Capitol Inside Texas Races to Watch for incumbents for the majority party in round one could be in trouble even though most if not all of them could still win.
While the upcoming election appears to be monumentally unpredictable, the crystal ball will go out the proverbial limb where mainstream media would never tread with a tentative forecast for 12 House Republican losses in round one or overtime. This is more of a wild guess than actual prediction. But that was the number that we tossed out last fall - and the competition has played out exactly as we envisioned here so we'll stick to it for now.
All 12 of the Democratic colleagues with first-round foes could emerge victorious at the polls next month or subsequent runoffs that are possibilities in three races in Houston, Dallas and Beaumont. State Rep. Shawn Thierry of Houston is fighting to survive against two primary opponents in the top-rated House race for the Democrats.
The prospects for incumbents being eaten by their own may be highest in House districts where the governor and the AG both are supporting challengers Hillary Hickland of Belton, Janis Holt of Silsbee, Helen Kerwin of Glen Rose, Marc LaHood of San Antonio, Brent Money of Greenville, Mike Olcott of Aledo and Alan Schoolcraft of Universal City.
Money is dueling new State Rep. Jill Dutton of Ben Wheeler in a rematch of a special session in January in a House District 2 race that's ranked second on the watch list in the closing weeks before the March vote. The Dutton-Money clash is rated below the opening round competition in House District 21 where the speaker is fighting to stave off David Covey of Orange as his chief threat in a fight that has overtime potential with Alicia Davis of Jasper also on the ballot there.
Five of the top 10 House races in the GOP primary pit incumbents who opposed Abbott's coveted school choice plan against challengers who the governor has endorsed and campaigned for at rallies in their home districts. State Reps. Glenn Rogers of Graford and DeWayne Burns of Cleburne are doing battle with Olcott and Kerwin respectively in contests that are ranked 3rd and 5th on the CI chart.
State Reps. Travis Clardy of Nacogdoches, Gary VanDeaver of New Boston and Steve Allison of San Antonio are trying to hold off Abbott-backed challengers in Joanne Shofner of Nacogdoches, Chris Spencer of Hughes Springs and LaHood in first-round fights that are rated 7th, 9th and 10th respectively.
Abbott also is supporting challengers Hickland, Holt and Schoolcraft in top 20 races in districts where they're attempting to oust GOP State Reps. Hugh Shine of Temple, Ernest Bailes of Shepherd and John Kuempel of Seguin in the first election of 2024.
Rogers, Burns, Shine, Bailes and Kuempel could find themselves in runoffs in races that have third candidates who haven't been competive but could force OT nonetheless. VanDeaver could have a runoff on the horizon as well in one of 25 GOP primary fights in districts where Abbott and Paxton are enemies while the two march arm-in-arm in others.
Republican State Reps. Frederick Frazier of McKinney, Kronda Thimesch of Lewisville and Lynn Stucky of Sanger all have Abbott in their corner for primary fights with opponents who Paxton is backing in races that are ranked among the top 10 less than a month before the initial vote.
more to come ...
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