The Democrats would have an opportunity to seize control of the Texas House if they found a way to win most of the races for seats the GOP is defending this fall in districts where Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton received 55 percent of the vote or less in a winning re-election bid in 2022.
Seventeen contests fit that description on the general election ballot in Texas in 2024.
With 64 Democrats on the current roster, the Texas minority party would
take the House back if they picked up a dozen seats in the 150-member chamber and the Republicans failed to flip any themselves in the fall. The Democrats could end up breaking even with the GOP in the House with 75 seats apiece if they ran the table in areas that Republicans occupy now in districts where Governor Greg Abbott failed to crack the 55 percent mark when he defeated Beto O'Rourke in the general election two years ago.
The Capitol Inside crystal ball foresees no changing of the guard in the Legislature's lower chamber after the election in November. But Democrats appear to have a realistic shot to wrestle six or seven House seats or more from the ruling party if they get a boost from the national climate at a time when President Joe Biden could have the election handed to him on a silver platter by Donald Trump and the Republicans.
Such a development could all but guarantee GOP Speaker Dade Phelan a third term with the gavel when the House elects its leader for 2025 on the first day of the regular session in January. Phelan would only need 14 Republicans in his corner with both parties break even in November and the Democrats are united behind the speaker. The more seats the Democrats pick up this fall, the fewer Republicans the speaker would need to remain in the leadership post as long as the Democratic members stick together as they probably can be expected to do.
A gain of four or five House seats for Democrats could set back if not torpedo Abbott's plans to pass a school choice bill after failing in multiple tries in 2023. Abbott has projected a victory on vouchers on the assumption that the number of House Republicans and Democrats will remain about the same next year.
While the Democrats have been treading water here for years - having lost control of the House in 2003 - they have several unique advantages that give the fall vote blue wave potential in the Lone Star State. The Republicans are venturing into new territory with their plans to nominate a convicted felon for president in the wake of Trump's conviction last week in New York City on 34 counts. A jury found Trump liable for sex abuse a year ago in connection with allegations of rape in a high-scale department store.
Trump is facing criminal charges in three other separate locations including the case in Florida over classified documents that he moved from the White House to Mar-a-Lago without legal authorization. The state Division of Alcoholic Beverage Control in New Jersey opened an investigation into the possible loss of licenses at three golf courses that Trump owns there. Trump's polling numbers have been falling as his personal tribulations escalate. But Abbott and other high-ranking Texas Republicans refuse to acknowledge the disaster they could be inviting with their unconditional support for him.
Even if Trump carries Texas again as widely predicted, the general election here has all the ingredients for a perfect storm nonetheless in races for the House as the epicenter of state politics year and the most telling gauge of the partisan complexion and shifts despite efforts to preserve the status quo in redistricting.
The presence of U.S. Senator Ted Cruz on the GOP ticket right below the White House race should be ample cause for even more concern based on the massive baggage he proved to be in 2018. With Trump as the president and Cruz atop the ballot in a re-election race, Democrats flipped 12 Texas House seats in districts that had been even more Republican than some that could be competitive this time around.
While Cruz defeated O'Rourke by less than 3 points in first re-election race six years ago, the Texas junior solon proved to a major down-ballot drag for the GOP on the state House battlefield. Texas Republicans will be hoping that Cruz is a seawall in a battle with Democratic U.S. Rep. Colin Allred in sharp contrast to 2018.
The Democrats came within two seats of the House majority in the 2008 election with a net-gain of five that gave the GOP a 76-74 edge. That made it possible for Republican Joe Straus to win his first race for House speaker when the 2009 regular session got under way the following year. Straus served 10 years in the leadership post before passing the torch to Republican Dennis Bonnen in 2019. Phelan replaced Bonnen two years later. All three most recent speakers had Democrats solidly behind them. All four of the Republicans who served as speaker here under GOP have had strong if not united support from Democrats as a prerequisite in a chamber where the majority party has been hopelessly divided.
The Democrats will find their best odds on paper in a quartet of races that feature GOP State Reps. John Lujan of San Antonio, Janie Lopez of San Benito, Angie Chen Button of Garland and Morgan Meyer of Dallas on the defensive in districts that Paxton either lost or carried by less than 1 percentage point in 2022 amid a challenge from Democrat Rochelle Garza. O'Rourke and Garza both carried the Alamo City district that Lujan is attempting to defend this year by 1.5 point and 1 point respectively.
Lujan is the early underdog in House District 118 in a fight with Kristian Carranza, who won the Democratic nomination with 63 percent of the March primary vote. Brownsville Democrat Jonathan Gracia may be a slight betting favorite over Lopez in House District 37. Button, who's won more than once as an underdog, faces her toughest test yet with Democrat Averie Bishop taking aim at her in House District 112 as a former Miss Texas who's Asian-American like the incumbent she's seeking to replace in the fall.
A pair of incumbents for the GOP - State Reps. Caroline Harris Davila of Round Rock and Lacey Hull of Houston - appear to be vulnerable as well in districts where Paxton beat Garza by 5 points and 9 points respectively. The attorney general, who survived an impeachment in the House in 2023, won by fewer than 3 points in 2022 in a district where GOP voters ousted incumbent Republican Steve Allison in the March primary election in favor of conservative Marc LaHood.
Allison would have been a narrow favorite this fall in House District 121 where Democrat Laurel Jordan Swift will have better odds against LaHood in a part of the city where the contest appears to be a toss-up as the summer approaches.
Democrats could be viable - thanks to Trump - in 17 House races where Paxton garnered 55 percent or less two years ago. Abbott won fewer than 55 percent in 2022 in 11 of those.
The GOP's best shot for gains appears to be in a pair of districts on the border where Democrats Cecilia Castellano of Somerset and State Rep. Eddie Morales of Eagle Pass are the party's nominees in fights with Republicans Don McLaughlin of Uvalde and Robert Garcia of Del Rio respectively in the fall.
The seat that freshman Democratic State Rep. Mihaela Plesa of Dallas will be attempting to defend will be on the GOP radar as well in a district where the incumbent is a solid favorite at this point. But there's little in the way of fruit that's hanging low enough to reach for the Republicans in House contests this year.
more to come ...
