Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's investigation into civil rights activists for alleged vote harvesting has been advertising that money could never buy for a Democratic state House candidate in an open race in a border district that the GOP hopes to flip.
A raid that gun-wielding agents from Paxton's office carried out at Cecilia Castellano's home near San Antonio could be campaign gold for the Democratic House hopeful barring the discovery of evidence that ties her to illegal activities. The AG's office executed search warrants at residences for civil rights activists and consultants at Paxton's orders.
The bet here is that the AG comes up empty in the probe as far as Castellano is concerned. But the massive attention that Castellano reaps from the AG's antics could propel her past GOP foe Don McLauglin this fall in the battle for House District 80 - the only seat that Democrats currently hold in an area that voted Republican in the last two election cycles.
With the general election just 10 weeks away, the Capitol Inside crystal ball sees a Castellano win on the horizon in the only Texas House district that the GOP appears to have a realistic shot to flip barring a Donald Trump-fueled red wave that put Republicans in position to pick up seats.
The forecast for the fall has Democrats wrestling a half-dozen Texas House seats from the GOP along with the only swing district here in the U.S. House. While Kamala Harris has an outside chance to carry the Lone Star State based on limited polling here, the Democrats could score their biggest individual win at the Texas polls in more than two full decades if Colin Allred knocks off U.S. Senator Ted Cruz
The crystal ball, which is always tentative until election day, currently has Trump winning Texas by a hair en route to a second straight defeat in the Electoral College. But we see Allred making history as the first Democrat to win statewide in Texas in 30 years.
Democrat Santos Limon gets the nod here as a razor-thin favorite over Republican U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales of San Antonio in the fight this fall in Congressional District 23.
Trump has never had coattails for down-ballot Republicans in Texas in four general elections as the president or candidate for the presidency. The GOP lost significant ground in Texas House districts in 2016 even though Trump beat Hillary Clinton here by 9 percentage points. Democrats picked up 12 seats in the Legislature's lower chamber on Trump's watch as the president in 2018. Beto O'Rourke lost to Cruz by less than 3 points in the U.S. Senate competition here that year.
Trump has been baggage for the GOP in the nation's second largest outside of support that Republicans gained in the last two cycles in border districts that still voted Democrat in most cases. Having squandered a lead of 3 or 4 points in a month with Harris as the central opponent, the former president appears to be on track to lose again regardless of how Texas votes
if he doesn't do something relatively soon to turn the race around.
Trump's threat to pull out of a September 10 debate could be a sign that he's simply trying to cut his losses after finding himself on the wrong end of a swing of 6 points or more in Harris' favor in polling nationwide and in battleground states.
The Texas House Republicans in the most significant peril this fall include State Reps. John Lujan of San Antonio, Angie Chen Button of Garland, Janie Lopez of San Benito, Morgan Meyer of Dallas and Caroline Harris Davila of Round Rock. San Antonio Republican Marc LaHood is attempting to protect a House seat for the GOP in a district that would go blue if the crystal ball is on the mark.
But the White House race is still close despite Trump's floundering and Harris' juggernaut start. The forecast here could change significantly in the next 70 days as a result.
Castellano fought back tears on Monday night in a special segment on CNN that also featured Democratic State Senator Roland Gutierrez of San Antonio. Castellano said Paxton agents scared her young son while confiscating phones, computers and other devices during a search their home. Castellano and Gutierrez agreed that the raids were designed to suppress the Latino vote by creating the appearance of fraud.
