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* Dade Phelan |
| 2 |
* John Smithee |
| 3 |
Todd Hunter |
| 4 |
* Tom Oliverson |
| 5 |
Cody Harris |
| 6 |
* James Frank |
| 7 |
* David Cook |
| 8 |
* Shelby Slawson |
| 9 |
Briscoe Cain |
| 10 |
* Ana-Maria Ramos |
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* Announced |
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A Dallas Democrat who rode a blue wave into the Texas House in 2018 put herself in position to capitalize on a possible replay this fall when she launched a campaign for speaker on Sunday night.
But State Rep. Ana-Maria Ramos of Dallas said nothing in an announcement that she posted on X on Monday morning about the prospects for a Democratic majority in the House in 2025 for the first time in two dozen years. That could be the only realistic path to victory in a chamber where the speaker has been a member of the party with the most seats in every session since the Reconstruction period after the Civil War.
Ramos joined a crowded field of contenders that had a Republican monopoly until she emerged in the running. Speaker Dade Phelan remains the favorite to win another term with the gavel as long as Democrats are united behind him like they were in 2021 and 2023. Five GOP members - State Reps. David Cook of Mansfield, James Frank of Wichita Falls, Tom Oliverson of Cypress, Shelby Slawson of Stephenville and John Smithee of Amarillo - have announced as candidates for Phelan's current job.
With the GOP currently holding a 86-64 edge in House seats, the Democrats would take the chamber back if they picked up 12 seats or more in the general election on November 5. Democrats flipped a dozen seats six years ago when Ramos ousted an incumbent Republican in a House District 102 race that she won by 6 percentage points. The GOP had 76 House seats in 2019 compared to 74 for the Democrats.
The Capitol Inside forecast for November has the Democrats with a net gain of six seats in the House. That would boost Phelan's odds by reducing the number of GOP votes he would need for a third term if he has all of the Democrats in his camp. Any Republican who has a united front from Democrats would only need the support of 14 GOP members if the major parties broke even in battles for the House this fall.
But a Democratic majority in the west wing in 2025 is a definite possibility given the highly-fluid state of the presidential race with Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 2 or 3 points nationally while the two are running fairly even in major swing states just eight weeks before the vote. The Democrats' hopes are buoyed by the presence of U.S. Senator Ted Cruz high on the ticket in a fight with Democratic U.S. Rep. Colin Allred after a narrow escape in 2018 when the incumbent Republican beat Beto O'Rourke by less than 3 points.
Trump was the president when Ramos and 11 other Democrats wrestled House seats from the GOP six years ago. But Trump could prove to be more baggage now as a consequence of a campaign that appeared on track to win before President Joe Biden withdrew from the race. Trump could be substantially more vulnerable after a brutal showing in the debate with Harris last week. But Trump leads Harris by a half-dozen points on average in polls of Texas voters in recent weeks. Trump beat Hillary Clinton by 9 points in Texas in 2016 before defeating Biden here in 2020 by less than 6 points.
As the only Democrat up to now in the Texas speaker's competition, Ramos could have added leverage in the minority party's deliberations on the eventual Republican its members would support for speaker if the GOP keeps the majority as expected.
"The race is about we, not me," Ramos said in the statement that she composed as a memo to Democratic incumbents and candidates for the House this fall.
"When we fight, we win, but we only win when we fight together!" she said in the social media post.
Ramos may not be the only Democrat with a hat in the ring before the speaker's election in January. State Rep. Elizabeth Campos of San Antonio has been mentioned as a possible contender as well.
