Dems Would Flip 9 House Seats and Lose 1
if Swing Rate for Special Votes Holds in Fall
Capitol Inside
April 20, 2026
A new analysis shows that Democrats would flip nine Texas House districts this fall if their nominees fare as well as their candidates in 37 special legislative elections that were held across the U.S. during President Donald Trump's second term in 2025 and 2026. The GOP would cut its losses under such a scenario by picking up a district on the border in a development that would leave the Democrats with a net-gain of eight seats on the state House battlefield here in 2026.
Texas Republicans - by the same token - would seize seven House seats from the Democrats if the majority party's candidates could replicate the support that Trump received in their individual districts in 2024. The GOP would pick up six state House districts on or near the border and one in the Houston area if its nominees ran as strong in November as Trump managed to do at the polls 16 months ago.
With Trump approval marks in the cellar and showing no signs for a rebound, the chances for an expansion of the Republican majority in the Texas Legislature's lower chamber appear to be somewhere between none and zero.
The analytic site MultiState Elections found that Democrats overperformed at a rate of 10.4 percentage points on average in 37 special elections for seats in legislatures in the current election cycle. Democrats flipped 25 in 2025. Democrats have turned five more legislative districts blue in the first four months of 2026. Tarrant County Democrat Taylor Rehmet's win in a runoff in Texas Senate District 9 on January 31 was the crowning example in a race where he defeated heavily-favored Republican Leigh Wambsganss by 14.4 points in a swath of the Dallas-Fort Worth area where Trump beat Kamala Harris by 17.4 points in 2024.
The Republicans - in sharp contrast - have yet to flip a seat in a state house, assembly or senate during Trump's second term as the president. The GOP's top candidate overperformed in four special legislative elections compared to 33 in districts where Democrats posted better numbers than they had in the 2024 presidential election.
MultiState Elections computed swing rates in individual races based on the difference between the amount of votes that Trump scored in the same districts in 2024 and the winning margins for candidates in the special elections that have been held in the current cycle. The average
The Democrats would pick up 16 Texas House seats if they won in every district where Trump beat Kamala Harris by less than 14.4 points - the Rehmet winning margin in SD 9. Democrats would reclaim the majority in the Texas Legislature's lower chamber with a net-gain of 14 seats or more in November.
But the Democrats would fall short by a half-dozen seats in such a quest if the median swing rate of 10.4 points in the special elections so far in the current cycle stayed the same for the general election less than seven months from now. While Democrats would win the U.S. House majority in a landslide if the median swing rate for special elections holds, they'd settle for a net-gain of eight Texas House seats under such a scenario. The districts that the Democrats would flip in such an event are listed below in an order that has the most vulnerable seats at the top.
!. House District 34. GOP State Rep. Denise Villalobos of Corpus Christi is seeking a second term in HD 34, which is located in a swath of Nueces County where 72 percent of the voting age population is Hispanic. Trump won HD 34 by 1.4 points in 2024. When adjusted for a swing of 10.4 points in the Democrats' favor, HD 34 is D +9.1 in the MultiState Elections projections.
2. House District 112. Republican State Rep. Angie Chen Button of Garland is running for an eighth term in the Dallas County district that's rated D +7.1 with an adjustment for a swing of 10.4 points. Trump won by 3.4 points in CD 112 in 2024.
3. House District 118. The race for the HD 118 seat in the San Antonio area is open as a result of State Rep. John Lujan's decision to run in a new congressional district instead. HD 118 is rated D +6.0 on the MultiState Elections scale. Trump won by 4.5 points in HD 118 in 2024.
4. House District 121. The district in the San Antonio area where GOP State Rep. Marc LaHood is on the ballot for a second term is D +5.7 when its adjusted to reflect the median swing average for the special elections that have been held in the past 16 months.
5. House District 108. Based in a patch of north central Dallas that's anchored by the wealthy enclave Highland Park, HD 108 is rated D +4.8 when the median swing average is added to the total Trump garnered there in 2024. GOP State Rep. Morgan Meyer is running for a sixth term in HD 108. Meyer is one of Speaker Dustin Burrows' most powerful allies as the Ways & Means Committee chairman.
6. House District 133. GOP State Rep. Mano DeAyala of Houston is seeking a third term in HD 133 in a suburban swath of Harris County where Democrats held the seat for a year after a wave election in 2008. HD 133 is rated D +3.5 in the MultiState analysis.
7. House District 52. The HD 52 seat is ranked D +2.3 with the adjustment for the median swing average in the special election that have been held in 2025 and 2026. GOP State Rep. Caroline Harris Davila of Round Rock is on the ballot for a third term in the suburban district in Williamson County on the northern edge of the Austin area.
8. House District 138. GOP State Rep. Lacey Hull of Houston is running for a fourth term in HD 138. HD 138 is rated D +2.0 in the Multistate assessment with the swing rate from the special contests figured in.
9.
House District 94. The race for HD 94 on the eastern edge of Tarrant County is open in light of a decision by GOP State Rep. Tony Tinderholt of Arlington to give up the seat so he could for office at the county level instead. HD 94 is D +0.9 in the analysis.
But the MultiState Elections analysts warn that the average swing rate could be considerably lower by the time the ballots are cast less than seven months from now if the special elections during a two-year span before the 2018 general election are an indication of what to expect later this year.
The median swing average for special contests in the 2018 cycle was 18.1 percent at this point in time. But Democrats only won by 2 points on average in the special election that were held between May and October that year. That brought the median swing average down to D +14.5 points by the time the 2018 general election was held.
Democrats may be favored to pick up nine or 10 Texas House districts if the average swing rate rose to that particular level in the remaining special elections in 2026.
Democrats picked up 12 Texas House districts, two state Senate seats and two congressional seats with rides on a blue wave that fall despite the lower swing rate from special votes.
The only piece of good news for the GOP in the MultiState Elections ratings is the fact that the party would be favored to flip the House District 74 seat that Democratic State Rep. Eddie Morales of Eagle Pass is seeking again this year in a stretch of the southwest Texas where Trump won by nearly 15 points in 2024. more to come ...
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