James Talarico Up on Jasmine Crockett
by 9 Points in Senate Primary in New Poll
Texas House & Senate Races Rankings - Crystal Ball for 2026 Texas Elections
Capitol Inside
January 15, 2026
State Rep. James Talarico appeared to seize the lead on Thursday in the Democratic nomination chase in the U.S. Senate race when a new poll found him with a surprisingly large lead over U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett less than two months before the primary election on March 3.
The Emerson College survey showed U.S. Senator John Cornyn running neck-and-neck with Attorney General Ken Paxton in the GOP primary sweepstakes for the right to represent the party at the top of the Texas ticket in November. Paxton was up by one on Cornyn with 27 percent of 550 likely primary voters in the Emerson poll that was conducted January 10-12.
But U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt was closer than many would have expected with support from 16 percent of the Republican voters in the sample as the candidate who will either force a runoff with the incumbent and attorney general or cap off a Cinderella run by knocking one of the two co-favorites out of the competition for a shot in overtime this spring. Such a scenario may be unlikely but possible nonetheless with 29 percent of the voters in the Emerson College poll saying they are still undecided on the Senate fight.
One of the nation's most prestigious and respected independent polling institutes, Emerson College made the biggest splash with the findings on Talarico, the Austin lawmaker who'd been widely perceived to be trailing Crockett until now. But the Texas survey showed Talarico with a 9-point advantage over the Dallas congressional member.
With 47 support compared to Crockett's 38 percent share of support in the Emerson survey, Talarico was just three points short of a majority that it would take to avoid a runoff by winning outright in the first round.
The executive director of polling at Emerson College, Spencer Kimball, said Talarico fared better with Hispanic and white voters. Crockett, who's Black, was favored by 80 percent of the Black voters in a sample that included 413 likely Democratic voters. Talarico's support among fellow male voters may have made the most significant difference in a survey that found him breaking even with Crockett among females in the poll.
“Talarico has built momentum among Hispanic (59%) and white (57%) voters, while a majority of Black Democratic primary voters (80%) support Crockett,” Kimball said. “Men also break for Talarico 52% to 30%, while women are about evenly split between the two Democrats, 44% for Talarico and 43% for Crockett.”
Crockett - a former state representative who's in the midst of her second U.S. House term - entered the Senate contest shortly before the filing deadline with the assertion that polling showed that she would win the seat that Cornyn claimed initially in 2002 if she joined the race. Crockett had substantially higher name identification than Talarcio a month ago when the fields were set.
But Talarcio has a huge following on TikTok - and he's sought to build his base of support by working overtime with recent rallies that he's staged in venues that were packed in red locales like Temple and Collin County. Talarico has pitched himself as the Democrat who has the best shot to win votes from independents and Republicans who've been alienated by President Donald Trump.
But Talarico and Crockett are both gambling that Paxton will be the GOP nominee as a result of the personal baggage he would bring to the fall fight. Both Democrats could expect to run as the underdog if Cornyn survives a runoff that looks to be all but certain in the GOP primary.
The Emerson College poll found Cornyn leading Talarico by 3 points in a hypothetical general election pairing. The incumbent solon was up on Crockett by 5 points when the two were paired in the poll. Crockett and Talarico were both tied with Paxton in hypothetical matchups with 46 percent apiece.
Democrats see the Senate sweepstakes as their best and possibly only shot in 2026 at snapping a losing streak in statewide races that got under in 1998.
more to come ...
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