The Capitol Inside crystal ball does not see a blue wave of the 2018 variety on the horizon for the midterm election this year despite a very tentative forecast for a net-gain of four to five Texas House seats for the Democrats in a development that would take some sting from a loss of two to three districts to the GOP on a new congressional map.
The Republicans could offset the Democrats' potential flipping of Texas House seats in the state's largest cities with wins in fights for some or all of seven seats that Democrats still control along the Mexican border in districts that President Donald Trump carried in 2024. But the GOP failed to field a full slate of candidates for House seats that are still blue in border districts where Trump won en route to a second term.
Glaring omissions can be found in districts where Democratic State Reps. Sergio Muñoz Jr. of Mission and Armando Martinez of Weslaco have clear paths to new terms without opposition in the primary or general election in 2026. Trump beat Democrat Kamala Harris by 6 percentage points in House District 36 where Muñoz has been the representative since 2011. Trump defeated Harris by more than 2 points in House District 39 that Martinez has represented since 2005.
Republicans are competing - in contrast - for the seats that State Reps. Eddie Morales of Eagle Pass, Oscar Longoria of Mission, Richard Raymond of Laredo and Terry Canales of Edinburg will be attempting to defend in border districts from which Trump emerged victorious in 2024. Three Republicans and three Democrats are running in an open race for the House District 41 seat in Hidalgo County where Democratic State Rep. Bobby Guerra isn't on the ballot for re-election in 2026. Trump beat Harris by almost 2 percentage points in HD 41.
Morales is the only border Democrat in a district that Republican U.S. Senator Ted Cruz and Trump both carried in 2024. Trump defeated Harris by nearly 15 points in House District 74 where Morales will be the GOP's top target for defeat in November in the battle for state House supremacy as a consequence.
But Trump's popularity was peaking when he won all but two Texas counties on the border. Based on recent polling and the results in midterm elections in 2025 in several swing states and test races, Trump's strength among Hispanic voters has declined substantially after a year back in the White House.
With the winds clearly blowing now in the Democrats' favor, the projection here for House battles on the border is for Democrats to successfully defend the districts that are blue now while picking up a seat in the San Antonio area in an open contest and one more in South Texas where rookie Republican Denise Villalobos of Corpus Christi is on the defensive in a bid for a second term.
The race in House District 34 where Villalobos is on the ballot and the open House District 118 contest are both ranked "Leans Dem" on the CI projection board. Four Republicans - State Reps. Janie Lopez of San Benito, Marc LaHood of San Antonio, Morgan Meyer of Dallas and Angie Chen Button of Garland - are running for new terms in races that are in the toss-up column initially.
A pair of Houston Republicans - State Reps. Mano DeAyala and Lacey Hull - could be in some peril in re-election bids in contests that are currently tagged as "Lean GOP" in the early guesswork for House races here in 2026. The House District 52 race that features State Rep. Caroline Harris Davila of Round Rock on the defensive is rated "Leans GOP" as well.
But the House battlefield is considerably smaller in 2026 than it was in 2018 as a result of gerrymandering that Republicans at the Texas Capitol had mastered by the time they assembled and approved the current map for the Legislature's lower chamber in 2021. The kind of low-hanging fruit that the blue wave swept away in Trump's first midterm election no longer exists thanks to the map craftsmanship in Austin. .
Hillary Clinton, as an example, had defeated Trump in 2016 in six of the dozen House districts that Democrats flipped two years later in Texas. Trump won by an average of 2.4 points in 2016 in the other six Texas House districts that Democrats seized from the GOP on the crest of the wave in 2018.
The Texas House districts that have the most competitive potential are those that Trump won by single-digit margins of victory in 2024. Nine that are represented by Republicans now fit that bill. But only four House races with the GOP playing defense are unfolding in districts where Trump beat Harris by fewer than four points.
In light of Trump's sinking approval ratings and growing unrest with the economy and other issues, the U.S. Senate fight that featured Cruz and Democratic challenger Colin Allred is a more credible gauge of what to expect in 2026 than the presidential competition here at the top of the tickets in 2024. Cruz defeated Allred by less than 5 points in 10 Texas House districts that Republicans are fighting to defend this year.
In November, @TaylorRehmetTX came just 3 points short of flipping this 30-year GOP stronghold.
Now, he’s headed for a 1/31 runoff against a GOP candidate who supports banning books and called for the deaths of racial justice protesters. https://t.co/2PRlxRSIgE
— Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (@DLCC) January 5, 2026
