 |
| |
INCUMBENT DEM |
HD |
2024 PRES |
MOV |
2024 SENATE |
MOV |
| 1 |
Mary Ann Perez |
144 |
Trump 50.8% |
2.9 |
Allred 52.3% |
7.8 |
| 2 |
Jon Rosenthal * |
135 |
Harris 52.8% |
7.8 |
Allred 56.4% |
16.0 |
| 3 |
Penny Morales Shaw |
148 |
Harris 53.5% |
8.6 |
Allred 56.7% |
16.3 |
| 4 |
Hubert Vo |
149 |
Harris 54.3% |
10.7 |
Allred 57.5% |
18.1 |
| 5 |
Ana Hernandez |
143 |
Harris 56.3% |
13.7 |
Allred 60.5% |
24.2 |
| 6 |
Armando Walle |
140 |
Harris 58.0% |
17.0 |
Allred 62.9% |
29.3 |
| 7 |
Gene Wu |
137 |
Harris 57.8% |
17.8 |
Allred 60.6% |
24.1 |
|
Abbott Pack for Harris Target Seats Has
Republican with Rap Sheet as Best Shot
Texas House & Senate Races Rankings - Crystal Ball for 2026 Texas Elections
Capitol Inside
January 16, 2026
Governor Greg Abbott is targeting seven Texas House seats that Democrats control in Harris County with a slate of challengers that features one who did time in the local lockup after a handful of misdemeanor arrests as the lone Republican in the only district the GOP appears to have a realistic shot at winning in 2026.
Abbott has vowed to pump $25 million into a plan to turn Harris County dark red with victories in his own campaign for re-election and the designated House districts where President Donald Trump lost to Democrat Kamala Harris by 10 points on average in 2024. The governor hopes to carry the nation's third largest county for the first time since his initial race for the state's top political prize in 2014.
Abbott defeated Fort Worth Democrat Wendy Davis in Harris County that year with 51 percent of the vote before losing there to Democratic challengers Lupe Valdez and Beto O'Rourke with 46 percent in 2018 and 45 percent in 2022. But the top Texas leader's stock would soar if could cap off the red coupe that he's promised in Harris County with wins in some or most or all of the races for Democratic House seats that he has in his sights there this year.
The governor has indicated that he fielded some or all of the Republicans who are competing for seats that Democrats will be attempting to defend at the polls in November. The candidates who Abbott is backing by virtue of design or default in the targeted Harris races are ranked below in a descending order on their odds for upsets based on voting histories in the Democratic districts that the governor has made it a mission to flip to the GOP. The Team Abbott fight card for the Democratic districts in Harris County looks like this ...
1. House District 144. Republican David Flores vs. Democratic State Rep. Mary Ann Perez of Houston. HD 144 is the only Harris district that Abbott is targeting where Donald Trump beat Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in 2024. Trump defeated the Democratic rival by less than 3 percentage points in HD 144 in the last general election when his popularity here was at an all-time high. But U.S. Senator Ted Cruz lost to Democrat Colin Allred by almost 8 points in HD 144 in 2024. But HD 144 is a swing district when compared to other six Abbott hit list districts where Harris the Democratic candidate defeated Trump by nearly 13 points on average and Allred won by more than 21 on average.
Perez proved to be vulnerable once a dozen years ago when she lost her first re-election bid to a Republican challenger on the ticket with Abbott in 2014. But Perez bounced back in style when she ousted the Republlcan incumbent who'd unseated her with more than 60 percent of the vote in 2016.
After watching Perez post double-digit victory margins over GOP foes in 2018 and 2020, Abbott and the Republicans appeared to give up on HD 144 where Perez ran without GOP opposition in 2022 and again in 2024 after blowing a golden opportunity to try to eliminate her in redistricting at the Capitol in Austin five years ago. HD 144 appears to be the only House seat that Abbott is targeting and has some chance to flip in the second largest Texas county where more than 5 million people live.
It isn't clear up to now if Abbott recruited the Republican who filed to run in HD 144. That's David Flores - a name that local voters might recognize as a candidate for mayor in Pasadena twice in the past eight years. Flores, a businessman, finished third in a field of seven in the mayoral election in the huge Houston suburb with 11 percent of the vote in 2017. Flores received 20 percent in a comeback bid in 2021 as the lone challenger against the incumbent city leader.
The governor has made violent crime and liberal bail policies signature issues in the push to claim about half of the Democratic House districts in Harris County for the GOP. Abbott apparently believes in second chances, however, based on the fact that he'll be supporting Flores in HD 144 as the only option there for the GOP this year. Flores acknowledged that he had run-ins with the law as a teenager and paid a steep price for them. The Houston Chronicle - citing court records in a piece on Flores' mayoral quest in 2017 - reported that he'd gone to jail five times for misdeanor arrests for theft in 2001 and 2003, assault and evading arrest in 2001 and lying about his name to a police officer in 2004. The Chron's article said Flores served 66 days in the Harris County jail after pleading guilty to the offenses that were lodged against him as a young man. The governor's team apparently decided that Flores paid his debt to society for minor incidents as a young man and is qualified to serve in the Legislature now. Abbott presumedly wouldn't target Perez if he didn't think Flores was a viable candidate.
2. House District 135. Republican Liz Ramos vs. Democrat Odus Evbagharu. With Democratic State Rep. Jon Rosenthal running for railroad commissioner, the HD 135 seat is the only other House seat that Abbott has targeted and might have some shot to win for the Republicans in 2026. But flipping the seat that Rosenthal is giving up would take a herculean effort on the governor's part in a district where Trump and Cruz lost by 8 points and 16 points respectively in 2024. Rosenthal was one of 12 Democrats who flipped House seats with the help of a blue wave in 2018. He beat a Republican by 300 votes out of nearly 75,000 that were cast in the general election in HD 135 in 2020. But after Rosenthal won by double digits against a GOP challenger in 2022, Abbott and the Republicans chose to leave him alone in 2024 when he was re-elected without Republican opposition.
The fall fight in HD 135 pits a pair of party activists in a race that Evbaghuru can expect to run as the betting favorite in a contest where Abbott's money is the only significant threat. Evbagharu worked as Rosenthal's chief of staff. He served as the Harris County Democratic Party chairman and the state party treasurer. Ramos is precinct chair and a host for the conservative Menudo Club in the Cypress area. She entered the HD 135 last year when Rosenthal appeared geared to run there again.
3. House District 148. Republican Amanda LaBrie vs. Democratic State Rep. Penny Morales Shaw. The incumbent who Abbott wants to eliminate won the seat initially in 2020 when she beat a GOP opponent with 64 percent of the vote. She beat Republicans with 56 percent and 55 percent of the vote in re-election races in 2022 and 2024. Trump lost by 9 points in HD 148 where Cruz finished 16 points behind Allred that year. LaBrie was all-America on the swim team at the University of Texas Permian Basin. Her resume includes a career in the oil and gas industry as a landman and think tank founder who organizes events for energy interests. This appears to be her first foray into the political arena as a candidate.
4. House District 149. Republican Dave Bennett vs. Democratic State Rep. Hubert Vo. The lawmaker in the governor's sights claimed the HD 149 seat initially when he ousted a Republican who'd been chairing the powerful Appropriations Committee for the GOP. Vo has been beating GOP challengers with ease ever since. He defeated the same GOP challenger in 2022 and 2024 with double-digit victory margins and could win by even more this time around based on his district's voting history. Vo moved to Texas with his family after they were forced to flee their homeland of Vietnam after Saigon fell to communists in the 1970s. The voting age population in HD 149 was 39 percent Hispanic, 25 percent Black and 21 percent Asian-American when the current House map was approved in 2021. Sixteen percent of HD 149 was white that year. Bennett, the current GOP challenger, falls into that particular category. Vo faces a primary challengers in Darlene Breaux and
Minkailu Jawonder. An upset in the Democratic primary's first round may be Bennett's only hope unless the governor can turn water into wine in the fall.
5. House District 143. Republican Frank Salazar vs. Democratic State Rep. Ana Hernandez. The HD 143 incumbent hasn't face a Republican in a general election since she throttled Doug Weiskopf with 73 percent of the vote in 2012. The GOP challenger she will face in November lost in the 2012 primary election when he received less than 39 percent of the vote in a field of two. Salazar is coming out of retirement to compete for a House seat in a district where Harris beat Trump by 14 points and Allred defeated Cruz by 24 in 2024.
6. House District 140. Republican Laura Garcia DeLeon vs. Democratic State Rep. Armando Walle. DeLeon is a risk management analyst who's launching a political career in a House district where Trump and Cruz lost by 17 points and 29 points respectively in 2024. Google searches turn up little or nothing on the challenger - a sign of inexperience for a candidate who's represented HD 140 since 2009 and had never faced a challenger for the GOP until now.
7. House District 137. Republican Robert McKenzie or Helen Zhou vs. Democratic State Rep. Gene Wu. The governor tried and failed to have the Texas Supreme Court remove Wu from the House last summer as payback for a central role he had in a walkout on a congressional map that bought the California Democrats time for the Proposition 50 plan that could be the game changer in the fight for the U.S. House majority at the polls this year. It isn't clear which of the two Republicans in the race will have Abbott's money. But Trump lost in HD 137 by 18 points in 2024 when Cruz was defeated there by 24 percentage points. So it may not matter who the Texas governor may be backing in HD 137 eventually.
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