New Poll Shows Talarico and Paxton Tied
in Texas Senate Fight with Cornyn Up by 1
U.S. Senate General Election Polls
Capitol Inside
May 18, 2026
The latest poll of Texas voters found an epic U.S. Senate race to be dead even if Attorney General Ken Paxton emerges from a primary runoff this month as the GOP nominee for a contest that James Talarico has been leading by relatively small margins since he won the Democratic primary election in March.
But the Texas Southern University survey that was released on Monday found U.S. Senator John Cornyn up on Talarico by 1 point in a potential fall pairing in the event of a victory by the incumbent in the overtime vote nine days from now on May 26.
Conducted by YouGov for the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at the Houston-based school, the new poll of 1,223 likely voters found Governor Greg Abbott leading Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa by 6 percentage points. Republican Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick had a 7-point advantage over Democrat Vikki Goodwin in the TSU poll in his defense of the Texas Senate president's position.
The Texas Southern survey found Libertarian Ted Brown as the potential game-changer in the Senate competition with sufficient support to affect the outcome of the race if its close.
The TSU poll from April 22 to May 6 showed Paxton and Talarico with 45 percent support apiece. But Talarico's support dipped to 44 percent with Cornyn as the general election opponent for the GOP with 45 percent in the first survey on the race that found a Republican in front. Brown had support from 3 percent of the voters in the Texas Southern survey with Cornyn on the ballot compared to 2 percent when Paxton was representing the GOP in the general election in 2026.
Talarico led Cornyn by 3.3 points on average in four previous polls that were taken in Texas since the primary election on March 3. The Democratic state representative from Austin was up on Paxton by 4 points on average in the four surveys for the general election in the Texas Senate race. Talarico had his biggest leads in a University of Texas poll in April that found him leading Cornyn by 7 points and Paxton by 8.
Abbott was favored by 49 percent of the voters in the TSU poll while 43 percent gave Hinojosa the nod. Patrick led Goodwin 47 percent to 40 percent in the survey. Goodwin, who's a Texas House member from Austin like the Democratic nominees for governor and U.S. Senate, has been viewed as a heavy favorite in a Democratic primary runoff with labor organizer Marcos Velez.
Talarico led Cornyn by a mere 4 points among Hispanic voters in the TSU survey that found him ahead of Paxton by 8 points in the battle for support in that crucial voting bloc. Talarico's approval ratings were 4 points higher than Paxton's in the Texas Southern poll at 46 percent. Cornyn was approved by only 36 percent of the voters despite the razor thin lead in a hypothetical match with Talarico.
The difference between the Senate contest and the races for governor and lieutenant governor in the TSU poll is the percentage of GOP voters who say they won't back the Senate nominee if its the candidate who they've opposed up to now. Nine percent of Paxton supporters told pollsters they wouldn't back Cornyn in the general election while 10 percent of the incumbent's voters say they would not vote for the AG if he prevails in OT.
Capitol Inside shifted the Texas Senate contest to toss up early last month in the rankings for the fall. The prediction market Kalshi moved the Senate fight in the Lone Star State to the toss up category last week. But Kalshi had Talarico odds of a victory in November at 47 percent and 48 percent.
more to come ...
|
|
DATE |
SAMPLE |
CORNYN |
TALARCIO |
LEADER |
|
4/22-5/06 |
1,223 LV |
45% |
44% |
Cornyn +1 |
|
4/10-20 |
1,200 RV |
33% |
40% |
Talarico +7 |
|
4/17-20 |
1,018 LV |
41% |
44% |
Talarico +3 |
|
3/12-17 |
900 LV |
41% |
43% |
Talarico +2 |
|
3/04-05 |
576 RV |
43% |
44% |
Talarico +1 |
Average |
|
|
|
|
Talarico +3 |
POLL |
DATE |
SAMPLE |
PAXTON |
TALARCIO |
LEADER |
|
4/22-5/06 |
1,223 LV |
45% |
45% |
Even |
|
4/10-20 |
1,200 RV |
34% |
42% |
Talarico +8 |
|
4/17-20 |
1,018 LV |
41% |
46% |
Talarico +5 |
|
3/12-17 |
900 LV |
43% |
44% |
Talarico +1 |
|
3/04-05 |
576 RV |
45% |
47% |
Talarico +2 |
Average |
|
|
|
|
Talarico +4 |
|
| 
