VoteHub Kicks Texas Race to Toss Up
as Trump Calls Dem Alfred E. Neuman
Capitol Inside
May 27, 2026
The political betting markets and prophets shifted the U.S. Senate race in Texas closer to the Democrats on Wednesday after the state Attorney General Ken Paxton ousted veteran U.S. Senator John Cornyn in a primary runoff that gave the GOP a nominee with baggage that's unprecedented at the top of the ticket.
The elections site VoteHub moved the Texas Senate race to toss up on Wednesday for the first time when the Cook Political Report and University of Virginia professor Larry Sabato both shuffled Paxton's fight with Democrat James Talarico to leans Republican after having it ranked as likely GOP up until now.
VoteHub made a case for the reclassification of the Texas contest in an analysis on the runoff vote and its potential implications as a seat that could be the game-changer in the Democrats' quest to seize control of the Senate in the midterm elections in 2026.
But the VoteHub forecast for the general election in November still gave the GOP a 51 percent chance of keeping the Senate majority despite the boosting of Talarico's odds for the Texas race. VoteHub in contrast gave the Democrats a 79 percent chance of reclaiming the U.S. House majority at the polls this fall.
Capitol Inside has been one step ahead of the national prognosticators with the shift of the Texas Senate race to the coin flip category early last month. The Senate battle was bumped to leans Democrat in the general election rankings here after President Donald Trump endorsed Paxton last week.
Paxton sent Cornyn packing after two dozen years on the job when he crushed the incumbent by nearly 28 points with almost 64 percent of the runoff vote on Tuesday. Talarico won the Democratic nomination for the Senate seat as the underdog in the primary election in March when he defeated U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett by a half-dozen percentage points and advanced to the fall without the need for overtime.
Talarico appears to have a much better shot on paper than the Democrats' other candidates in statewide races - in large part as a function of Paxton's epic vulnerability and the fact that a relatively significant number of Cornyn voters have sworn they would skip the race in November or support Talarico instead if he didn't prevail in OT.
After accusing Cornyn of disloyalty during the weekend before the runoff vote, Trump sang a completely different tune in a post-mortem review of the Texas Senate race on Truth Social today. The president portrayed Cornyn as a Johnny-come-lately whose support for his agenda was lukewarm at best.
But Trump seemed to be in awe of the fallen solon in the social media post - congratulating Cornyn "for having run a strong and powerful race but, more importantly, having a had a truly great career. John will remain my friend for a long time to come, and we both watch Ken become a fantastic, common sense Senator, one who is respected by all."
Trump branded Talarico as the "Alfred E. Neuman" in the Texas Senate race in a reference to the cover character in Mad Magazine.
“A strong Open Borders advocate, he is WEAK ON CRIME, believes there are 6 genders, is insulting to Jesus Christ, will never support the Military, was a big Mask Wearer until recently, and is a Vegan who dislikes meat, not exactly a good way to be if you’re wanting to win an Election in Texas,“ the president asserted.
Trump also pointed out in the post on the Texas Senate contest that the Democrat who Talarico best is not related to Davy Crockett, who for the record was a white man from Tennessee. Jasmine Crockett is Black.
more to come ...
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