Abbott Aims to Flip Harris House Districts
Where the GOP Hasn't Been Competitive
Texas House & Senate Races Rankings - Crystal Ball for 2026 Texas Elections
Capitol Inside
January 13, 2026
Governor Greg Abbott is gambling a surprising sum of political capital on a plan to transform the Harris County from rock-solid blue to dark red Republican with wins there in his own re-election effort and seven Texas House races in districts that Democrats control and are heavily favored to win in November.
The quest to convert the largest Texas county into a place that Republicans rule may have less chance for success than Abbott's highly-publicized push to carry the Rio Grande Valley in his last re-election race in 2022. The governor didn't come close when he received less than 42 percent of the combined vote in the RGV's four counties that year.
But Abbott has set his sights on a more imposing challenge in 2026 with a vow for a victory in Harris County for himself and Republicans who are running for state House seats they appear to have no hope of winning in an election year that's loaded with the potential disaster for the GOP in Texas and beyond.
The governor believes he can overcome odds that are next to impossible on paper with a $25 million infusion from his massive war chest for candidate support, voter turnout and other purposes between now and the general election. Abbott could have second thoughts about the Harris County push if State Rep. Gina Hinojosa turns out to be a more serious threat to his own fortunes than he appears to anticipate now as the probable nominee for the Democrats in the governor's race in 2026.
Abbott acknowledged in an interview this week that he hadn't won in Harris County since his first bid for governor in 2014 when he claimed 51 percent of the vote there en route to a 4-point win against Democrat Wendy Davis. But the governor's share of the Harris vote plunged to 46 percent in 2018 when he lost there to Democrat Lupe Valdez by almost 6 points in his first re-election race. Abbott hit a personal low in the nation's third biggest county when he had less than 45 percent of the Harris vote and lost by 9 points to Democratic nominee Beto O'Rourke there in 2022.
While an Abbott victory in Harris County would not be a first, he's set himself up for potential embarrassment with the effort aimed at flipping seven state House districts with large concentrations of Hispanics including six where Republicans haven't been competitive on his watch. The governor is ignoring the polling and other trends that have shown a steady erosion of President Donald Trump's support among Latinos that spiked in 2024 when he made history as the first Republican to carry the Rio Grande Valley where he captured 52 percent of the combined vote in the four counties there.
Abbott seems to be working off the assumption now that Trump's popularity with Hispanic voters hasn't changed or is even stronger now than it's been in the past. The Texas House districts that Abbott has set out to flip feature GOP contenders who are relatively unknown and can expect to run as prohibitive underdogs in almost every case regardless of whether he's bankrolling them or not. They're ranked below based on the prospect for upsets in the fall.
* House District 144. The seat that State Rep. Mary Ann Perez won initially in 2016 and is seeking again may be the only one that Abbott has targeted in Harris County and may could have a shot to actually claim for the GOP in the general election in 2026. President Donald Trump beat Kamala Harris in HD 144 by 3 points in 2024. But Democrat Colin Allred defeated U.S. Senator Ted Cruz in Perez's district by 7 percentage points when Trump's popularity was peaking at an all-time high in the Lone Star State. The Republicans didn't think that Perez was vulnerable just two years ago when they failed to field a challenger to compete for the HD 144 seat. Barring a dramatic rebound in the president's approval marks, Perez can expect to be an all but prohibitive favorite again when she squares off in the fall with Republican David Flores as the only two contenders this year in HD 144.
* House District 135. Democratic State Rep. Jon Rosenthal is giving up the HD 135 seat that he captured initially in 2018 in favor of a bid for the Texas Railroad Commission in 2026. The Republicans couldn't find a challenger for Rosenthal in 2024 when Kamala Harris defeated Trump in HD 135 by 8 points and Allred beat Cruz by 17 there. Democrat Odus Evbagharu and Republican Liz Ramos are the only two contenders in the open HD 135 race this year.
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House District 148. This is one of only two other seats that Abbott has targeted in the Houston area in a district where Harris the White House nominee failed to beat Trump by double digits in 2024. Trump lost by 9 points in HD 148 in 2024 when Democratic State Rep. Penny Morales Shaw beat a Republican foe there with 55 percent of the vote. Shaw, who's unopposed in the March 3 primary, will expect to face Amanda Labrie in the general election as the only candidate for the GOP in the HD 148 race this year. Shaw was elected to the House in 2020. But Shaw must overcome a pair of primary foes before she can advance to the fall.
* House District 143. Democratic State Rep. Ana Hernandez has been a member of the House since 2005 as well. No Republican has been competitive in HD 143 during that span of time. Hernandez ran unopposed in the general election in 2024 when Trump and Cruz lost there by 13 points and 25 points respectively in HD 143 where Frank Salazar is the lone contender for the GOP this year.
* House District 149. State Rep. Hubert Vo faces three primary foes in a bid for the seat that he'd held on the west side of the Houston area for 21 years. Dave Bennett is the lone Republican in HD 149 this year. Abbott's chances to flip HD 149 would improve if Vo is unseated in the primary or subsequent runoff. But that isn't likely - and Vo will expect to win with ease in the general election if he survives the spring. Kamala Harris won by 10 points in HD 149 in 2024 when Allred defeated Cruz there by 19.
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House District 140. State Rep. Armando Walle has represented HD 140 for 16 years and can expect four more with a win over Laura Garcia DeLeon in November barring developments that no one outside of the governor's camp perhaps can foresee or imagine at this point in the season. Walle didn't draw a GOP foe in 2024 when Trump lost by 17 points in HD 140 and Allred beat Cruz by 29. Walle will get a warm-up round this time around with Ruben Salazar as a primary opponent.
* House District 137. State Rep. Gene Wu - the House Democratic Caucus chairman - found no Republicans as obstacles in 2024 when he beat a Libertarian with 76 percent of the vote in HD 137. Trump lost by 18 in HD 137 that year when Cruz finished 25 behind Allred in the race on the ballot below. Robert McKenzie and Helen Zhou are competing for the GOP nomination in HD 137 where Wu once again is unopposed in the first round.
A Republican victory in HD 137 would be especially sweet for Abbott, who attempted without success to have the Texas Supreme Court remove Wu from the House for the key role he had as the caucus chair in a walkout by Democrats during a fight on congressional redistricting last summer. The delaying tactics bought time for California Democrats to get the Proposition 50 initiative under way as a voter-approved plan that could more than offset GOP gains on the new Texas map. Abbott's odds of knocking off Wu might be lower at the polls than they were in the high court last year.
more to come ...
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