Paxton Touts Vault in GOP Support for Fall
But Says Senate Race Dead Heat Despite It
Texas General Election Polls
Capitol Inside
June 24, 2026
Attempting to steal some thunder on the eve of the Texas Democrats' state convention, Attorney General Ken Paxton contended on Wednesday that Republican voters were "rapidly consolidating" behind his U.S. Senate campaign after a primary runoff melee that divided the GOP here more than any singular event in modern times.
Paxton sought to project the appearance of a momentum surge with his camp's touting of a University of Texas poll that showed his support among GOP voters spiking 21 points from the point where it had been the month before he ousted incumbent John Cornyn in a primary runoff in May with 64 percent of the vote. The Texas Politics Project poll that was published on Tuesday found Paxton's support among Republicans had vaulted from 63 percent in April to 84 percent in June.
"These numbers tell the real story," Paxton senior advisor Nick Maddux said in a statement from the campaign. "The primary is over. Republicans are coming together and are ready to reject James Talarico's sad attempt to scrub his radical record."
But do they really? Despite the surge in support from fellow Republicans that the UT poll detected, Paxton only led Talarico by a single point. After Talarico led Paxton by 3 points in the first poll that was taken on the Texas Senate contest after the runoff vote May 26. But Paxton has been up by 1 point on average in four subsequent surveys that were taken on the race in June.
That's way too close for comfort In a race as close as the Texas Senate contest appears to be - 5 percent could a game-changer for the Democrat if Paxton's support from GOP voters has peaked there. The UT poll shows that the lion's share of Republicans have rallied behind the state AG. But that might not be enough if Talarico can have as much success with a relatively large number of independent voters as he's had with those who say they've made up their minds in the Senate race. Talarico led Paxton by 28 points among independents in the University of Texas poll with 40 support compared to 12 percent for the attorney general.
A poll by the arch-conservative Red Eagle Politics told a very different story about Talarico's support among Republicans when it found that 25 percent of the GOP voters who backed incumbent John Cornyn in the primary election are prepared to vote for the Democrat in November. One-fourth of the Republicans who backed Cornyn in the first round computes to 227,596.
A Texas Public Opinion Research poll that was taken immediately after the runoff vote found that 7 percent of the Republicans planned to cast ballots for Talarico in November. A Texas Pulse survey that was conducted by Texas A&M University and Siena University during the first four days this month showed Talarico with the support from 8 percent of the GOP voters.
For the sake of perspective, consider these numbers. Five percent of 2,166,910 votes - the total number cast in the Republican primary in March in the Senate contest - computes to 108,346 votes. Eight percent of 2,166,910 is 173,353. While the turnout for the general election could be three or four times higher than the combined count of votes cast in March in the major party primaries in the Texas Senate fight.
While elections are apples and oranges from season to season, Talarico appears to have a larger chunk of Republicans than Democrat Beto O'Rourke was able to attract as the Democratic nominee in a fight with U.S. Senator Ted Cruz in 2018 when the last major blue wave took place. Cruz beat O'Rourke by 214,921 votes - less than 3 percent of the total cast - in the midterm election in President Donald Trump's first stint in the White House. But O'Rourke had longer coattails than a losing candidate had ever demonstrated here - and Democrats flipped 12 Texas House seats, two state Senate districts and two slots in the congressional delegation.
The 2026 midterm campaigns are unfolding in the midst of a national climate that bears a stark resemblance to the elections eight years ago during Trump's first term. While touting an infusion of GOP support in the primary runoff's wake, Paxton's campaign stopped short of making any bold predictions that could signal overconfidence.
"Make no mistake," Maddux said. "This race is a dead heat, and the job is far from finished.
"We cannot afford complacency," the Paxton adviser added. "If Republicans keep uniting behind Ken Paxton's proven record, we will win in November and put Texas out of reach for the radical left once and for all." | 
