Paxton, Middleton and French Get OT Nods
as Garcia and De La Cruz Picks for CD 35
Texas Primary Runoff Predictions - General Election Rankings
Texas Primary Runoff & General Election Polls
Capitol Inside
May 22, 2026
President Donald Trump turned the most competitive primary race in modern Texas history into a probable rout when he pitched an endorsement to Attorney General Ken Paxton this week after dangling it in front of U.S. Senator John Cornyn like Pavlov teasing his dog with a bite of steak.
But Capitol Inside saw that coming days after the March primary vote that Paxton would win the Texas Senate runoff for the Republicans with a game-changing boost from a Trump endorsement in the closing stretch if the president didn't choose to stay out of the fight like he'd done until the end. Cornyn - to his credit - has refused to wave the white flag since the president he claims to have supported 99 percent of the time or more decided that it wasn't enough and too late to do him any good.
Paxton is an overwhelming favorite now over Cornyn in round two - and the Democrats are the ones who are salivating now as a result with the party's Senate nominee James Talarico leading the baggage-laden AG by 4 points on average in polls on the general election here this year.
The primary runoff for the seat that Cornyn will be kissing goodbye is one of three dozen second-round Texas battles that Capitol Inside is attempting to predict here in the closing days of overtime. Here are the 10 that are the most competitive and significant on the Texas statewide, congressional and legislative battlefields this fall.
* U.S. Senate - Republican. Ken Paxton
* Attorney General - Republican. Mayes Middleton
* Railroad Commissioner - Republican. Bo French
* Congressional District 35 - Democrat. Johnny Garcia
* Congressional District 35 - Republican. Carlos De La Cruz
* Congressional District 9 - Republican. Alex Mealer
* Congressional District 33 - Democrat. Julie Johnson
* Congressional District 18 - Democrat. Christian Menefee
* Texas House District 37 - Democrat. Ozzie Ochoa Jr.
Capitol Inside also projected overtime victories next week for Republicans Mayes Middleton and Bo French in bids for attorney general and railroad commissioner respectively. French would be an upset on paper based on a runner-up finish to incumbent Texas Railroad Commission member James Wright in round one. Wright received 32.1 percent of the primary vote compared to 31.8 percent for French - a former Tarrant County GOP chairman and two-time loser in Texas House races.
Governor Greg Abbott and GOP establishment interests are pushing the incumbent in the RRC runoff in the midst of fear that French would be a drain on the ticket as a consequence of rants on Muslim invasions and other far-right conspiracies. But French appears on just about every conservative slate that's popping up on social media with Paxton at the top. The guess here is that most Paxton voters will back French as well.
State Rep. Vikki Goodwin of Austin and State Senator Nathan Johnson of Dallas are easly picks for runoff wins in the Democratic primary runoff in statewide races for lieutenant governor and AG. Johnson and Goodwin both had substantial leads over overtime foes in the initial election in March.
The two most important runoff battles for U.S. House seats in Texas have been unfolding in the same location - Congressional District 35 - one of five that GOP lawmakers in Austin targeted for their party on a new map that Trump ordered them to draw last summer. CD 35 is rated as a toss up in the Capitol Inside rankings for the general election in November. But the seat is ranked as likely Republican in forecasts at the national level.
Democrat Johnny Garcia is the choice here for the winner's circle in the Democratic primary runoff in CD 35 where second-round foe Maureen Galindo has appeared to be imploding based on rants about the imprisonment of American zionists and revelations about funding from a mysterious group that's been linked to the GOP. Galindo led Garcia by 2 points in the primary election. But Galindo is getting the pariah treatment now as Democrats on the ballot like Talarico rally behind Garcia for round two in the pivotal Texas district that the Republicans in Austin thought they'd reconstructed in a way where they couldn't lose.
The GOP overtime duel in CD 35 between State Rep. John Lujan of San Antonio and Carlos De La Cruz is a tougher call. Lujan led De La Cruz by 6 points in the first round. But De La Cruz has had three months to trumpet an endorsment from Trump - and we think that will be the difference in the GOP runoff in CD 35.
The dueling runoffs in CD 35 top the rankings here for U.S. House races in the overtime election - with a fiercely-contested Congressional District 9 fight that features first-round leader Alex Mealer and State Rep. Briscoe Cain rated third on the list. Abbott has been campaigning for Cain this week as he tried to overcome an initial deficit of almost 5 points in the targeted congressional district that the Republicans have their best shot to flip in the fall. The tentative pick here is Mealer in a fight that Cain still has a shot to win.
Democratic U.S. Rep. Julie Johnson of Dallas gets the call in a Congressional District 33 overtime clash with former House member and U.S. Senate nominee Colin Allred as the first-round leader. This is a risky projection that goes against the grain given Allred's lead of almost 11 points in the March election.
The traders on the prediction market Kalshi are betting on Allred - giving him a 90 percent chance of victory on Saturday. A victory by Johnson on Tuesday would be an upset. Veteran U.S. Rep. Al Green of Houston faces an imposing challenge as well in a Congressional District 18 runoff with incumbent Democrat Christian Menefee, who's a slight favorite here for OT after a win in a special election runoff in January. The districts that Johnson and Green currently represent are more Republican on the new map than the three other Democratic districts that were targeted during the GOP's redistricting push in 2025.
The predictions for the runoff are tentative until the polls close in round two. That means that some could change in the final four days before the OT vote. The current order puts a higher premium on runoffs in races that have the potential to affect the balance of partisan power in the Texas Legislature and Congress in the general election at a time when the GOP's prospects have seemed to darken considerably more each week.
Talarico is the first Democratic Senate candidate to be leading in the polls in Texas in two dozen years - with average advantages of 3 points on Cornyn and 4 on Paxton as the now-prohibitive favorite in the GOP runoff. Talarico has emerged in the past week as a player in the runoff - taking sides in the CD 35 runoff and campaigning for Johnson in CD 33. Allred backed Jasmine Crockett in the U.S. Senate primary and suggested that Talarico had disrespected him.
Congressional District 9 is one of the five seats that Republicans at the state Capitol redrew for the GOP in 2025. But it's one of only two that the GOP is currently favored here to flip this fall. State Rep. Briscoe Cain of Deer Park has waged a furious comeback in overtime after runoff foe Alex Mealer beat him 5 points in March. Abbott has been heavily involved on Cain's behalf. But Mealer has an endorsement from the president, which trumps the governor here any day. Betting against Trump hasn't worked lately in GOP primary elections. So we're giving Mealer the ned here in overtime - but we're not counting Cain out just yet.
The dismantling of U.S. Rep. Al Green's district prompted the veteran incumbent to seek a new term in CD 18 where Christian Menefee won the job in a special election in January for the rest of the year. Menefee led Green by 2 points in the primary election. The Republicans found a way with redistricting to slash the number of House districts where Black candidates can win in the Houston area in half. It may be too soon to count Green out. But Menefee's the pick here for OT.
Runoffs are often fatal for incumbents. But Democratic State Rep. Venton Jones of Dallas looks like an overtime winner nonetheless in House District 100 where he almost won outright in March with 49 percent of the vote. But Democratic State Rep. Hubert Vo of Houston faces a more imosing challenge in a runoff in House District 149 where he led OT foe Darlene Breaux in round one by 3 votes out almost 10,000 cast in the race.
Rankings Based on Overall Competitiveness, Significance for Fall
and the Candidates' Performances in the March 3 Primary Vote
 Projected Winner GOP |
 Projected Winner Dem |
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STATEWIDE |
| 1 |
U.S. Senate (R)
John Cornyn (I) 42.0%
Ken Paxton 40.5% |
| 2 |
Attorney General (R)
Mayes Middleton 39.1%
Chip Roy 31.6% |
| 3 |
Texas RRC (R)
Jim Wright (I) 32.1%
Bo French 31.8% |
| 4 |
Lieutenant Governor (D)
Vikki Goodwin 48.0%
Marcos Velez 31.5% |
| 5 |
Attorney General (D)
Nathan Johnson 48.1%
Joe Jaworski 26.4% |
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LEGISLATURE |
| 1 |
House District 37 (D)
Ozzie Ochoa Jr. 46.0%
Esmi Cantu-Castle 32.0% |
| 2 |
House District 41 (D)
Julio Salinas 39.0%
Victor Haddad 37.0% |
| 3 |
House District 41 (R)
Sergio Sanchez 46.0%
Gary Groves 38.0% |
| 4 |
House District 149 (D)
Hubert Vo (I) 38.0%
Darlene Breaux 38.0% |
| 5 |
House District 100 (D)
Venton Jones (I) 49.0%
Amanda Richardson 35.0% |
| 6 |
House District 125 (D)
Adrian Reyna 39.0%
Michelle Vela 34.0% |
| 7 |
House District 131 (D)
Staci Childs 45.0%
Lawrene Allen 28.0% |
| 8 |
House District 126 (R)
Stan Stanart 49.0%
Kelly Peterson 29.0% |
| 9 |
House District 49 (D)
Montserrat Garibay 33.0%
Kathie Tovo 28.0% |
| 10 |
House District 97 (D)
Diane Symons 42.0%
Beth McLaugnlin 30.0% |
| 11 |
House District 40 (R)
Celeste Cabrera-Huff 38,0%
Nehemias Gomez 37.0% |
| 12 |
Senate District 19 (R)
Marcus Cardenas 44.0%
Robert Marks Jr. 32.0% |
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CONGRESSIONAL |
| 1 |
Congress District 35 (D)
Maureen Galindo 29.2%
Johnny Garcia 27.0% |
| 2 |
Congress District 35 (R)
John Lujan 33.0%
Carlos De La Cruz 26.8% |
| 3 |
Congress District 9 (R)
Alex Mealer 35.8%
Briscoe Cain 31.2% |
| 4 |
Congress District 33 (D)
Colin Allred 44.0%
Julie Johnson (I) 33.2% |
| 5 |
Congress District 18 (D)
Christian Menefee 46.1%
Al Green (I) 44.2% |
| 6 |
Congress District 19 (R)
Tom Sell 40.4%
Abraham Enriquez 18.8% |
| 7 |
Congress District 32 (R)
Jace Yarbrough 49.0%
Ryan Binkley 21.7% |
| 8 |
Congress District 38 (R)
Jon Bonck 46.8%
Shelly deZevallos 18.8% |
| 9 |
Congress District 24 (D)
Kevin Burge 48.0%
TJ Ware 26.1% |
| 10 |
Congress District 7 (R)
Alexander Hale 45.3%
Tina Cohen 26.8% |
| 11 |
Congress District 37 (R)
Ge'Nell Gary 35.3%
Lauren Pena 35.0% |
| 12 |
Congress District 5 (D)
Chelsey Hockett 45.9%
Ruth "Truth" Torres 41.6% |
| 13 |
Congress District 16 (R)
Adam Bauman 27.9%
Manuel Barraza 21.1% |
| 14 |
Congress District 30 (R)
Everett Jackson 38.0%
Sholdon Daniels 24.3% |
| 15 |
Congress District 33 (R)
Patrick Gillespie 35.5%
John Sims 22.3% |
| 16 |
Congress District 17 (D)
Milah Flores 42.6%
Casey Shepard 32.4% |
| 17 |
Congress District 14 (D)
Richard H. Davis 44.3%
Thurman Bill Bartie 31.3% |
| 18 |
Congress District 1 (D)
Yolanda Prince 44.5%
Dax Alexander 22.0% |
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