Talarico Leads Paxton by 3 in Fox News Poll
that Shows Abbott Up on Hinojosa by 1 Point General Election Polls
Capitol Inside
July 30, 2026
A Fox News poll had Texas Republicans on the brink of outright panic on Thursday night after finding Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton by 3 points in an open U.S. Senate race in Texas where Governor Greg Abbott was up on Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa by a single point.
Conducted by the Democratic Beacon Research in tandem with the GOP firm Shaw & Company Research, the Fox News survey of 1,006 registered Texas voters July 23-27 found Talarico with support from 51 percent, the first time he'd had a majority backing him since he launched a bid for the Senate last fall.
The Fox News poll showed the governor's race to be a statistical deadlock - with 50 percent support for the third-term incumbent and 49 percent for the Austin state representative who's attempting to unseat him in the general election 92 days from now. The survey was the closest that Hinojosa has come in the polling on the gubernatorial competition here since she claimed the Democratic nomination in March.
Fox News found Democrats ahead of Republicans this week in polls that showed Democrats with leads between 4 points and 13 points in the U.S. Senate races that will determine who controls the chamber in 2027. But the conservative television network saved the release of the results in Texas for last today as the contest that locked down the Senate majority for Democrats if Talarico holds on to win.
"Although Paxton dominated Cornyn in the GOP primary, that bruising contest left scars," GOP pollster Daron Shaw said of the lingering division among Republicans in the aftermath of the state attorney general's elimination of veteran solon John Cornyn in a primary runoff election in May.
The Fox News survey was made public just two days after a Texas Public Opinion Research poll found Talarico with a 5-point advantage on Paxton while Abbott led Hinojosa by 3 points - the closet that she'd been until today. Republicans portrayed the non-partisan TPOR poll as a partisan hack job based on the fact that the lead pollster used to work for Democrats. Paxton depicted the Fox News poll as fake news as well even though it was commissioned for a network on which he appears frequently for interviews and talk shows.
The Beacon Research/Shaw poll for Fox News found Talarico leading Paxton by 18 points among Hispanic voters with support from 59 percent in a state where a majority backed Trump in 2024. Paxton had support from 41 percent of the Hispanic voters in the new Fox survey.
The Fox News poll showed Talarico with a 74-point advantage among Black voters with support from 87 percent. The numbers give the impression that a tiff with former primary foe Jasmine Crockett is doing little to diminish Talarico's standing with Blacks. While Republicans may try to discredit the new Fox News survey on the grounds it didn't narrow the sample to likely voters, Talarico actually was up on Paxton by 6 points of the Texas voters who are "extremely interested" in the race and those who are "extremely motivated" about the election.
Moderate voters favored Talarico 63-35. Sixty-two percent of the voters under age 30 supported the Democrat for the Texas Senate seat while 54 percent of the women in the sample supported Talarico as well. Paxton had a narrow lead among male voters with support from 52 percent. Sixty-three of rural voters backed Paxton. The Republican attorney general had a four-point advantage among voters age 65 and older.
Fox News found Democratic U.S. Senator Jon Ossoff beating the GOP's Mike Collins by 13 points with 56 percent support in Georgia. North Carolina's former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper was ahead of Republican Michael Whatley by 9 points in the U.S. Senate fight there with 53 percent support in a Fox News survey. Former U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown, who's a Democrat, led GOP foe Jon Husted by 8 points ina Fox News survey with 53 percent in a Senate race in Ohio where the lead had see-sawed in the polling. Democrat Josh Turek was up on Republican Ashley Hinson by 3 points with 50 percent support in a Fox News survey for a U.S. Senate race in Iowa where the candidates have been neck and neck.
The new July poll found a significant number of split-ticket voters - with 12 percent of Talarico's supporters planning to vote for Abbott in the governor's race. Nine percent of Paxton supporters favored Hinojosa in the top Texas down-ballot contest this year.
Fifty-two percent of the Texans in the Fox News sample did not view Talarico as too extreme to be an effective U.S. Senate member compared to 47 percent who did. Fifty-eight percent of the respondents said Paxton lacked the personal character to hold a Senate seat.
Fifty percent of the Fox News poll's participants gave Abbott a favorable rating while 49 percent viewed him unfavorably. Forty-five percent rated Paxton favorably compared to 51 percent who turned thumbs down on the AG. Trump was under water the most in Texas - with 45 percent giving him a favorable rating compared to 54 percent who saw him unfavorably. Hinojosa received favorable marks from 45 percent while 34 percent viewed her in an unfavorable light. But 19 percent in the Fox News poll had no opinion on the Democratic nominee for governor here.
Thrity-seven percent rated inflation and high prices as the most pressing issue for the midterm election while border security was a distant second at 18 percent.
more to come ...
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