Two-Thirds of Talarico Voters Back Dem
for Sake of Opposing Trump in New Poll
Texas General Election Polls
General Election Rankings
Capitol Inside
October 18, 2026
Texas Democrat James Talarico held a two-point edge over Republican Ken Paxton in the fight for a U.S. Senate seat in a new CBS News/YouGov poll that was released on Sunday with Governor Greg Abbott up by twice as much on Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa just 15 days before the midterm vote.
The survey of 1,492 registered voters for eight days ending on Friday found Talarico with support from 51 percent compared to 49 percent - making the race a toss up inside a 3.5 percent margin of error. The CBS News poll showed Abbott with 52 percent support while Hinojosa was favored by 48 percent.
But the CBS News/YouGov poll found that 67 percent of the Texas voters who support Talarico are doing so to oppose President Donald Trump compared to 32 percent who said the nation's leader played no part in their decision to back the Democrat in the Senate contest here. Fifty-one percent of Paxton's supporters in the survey indicated they were backing the state attorney general as a result of their support for Trump while 48 said the president's position in the Texas fight did not influence their decision.
Nine percent of the Republican voters who've said they would never vote for a Democrat are backing Talarico in the CBS News poll. Thirteen percent of the voters who support Trump's deportation program gave the nod to Talarico in the U.S. Senate race. While 87 percent of the Democrats in the sample said they definitely plan to vote this year, only 76 percent of the Republicans voters in the CBS News/YouGov survey expect to cast ballots as well. The poll found that 77 percent of independents plan to vote.
The poll found Talarico in front of Paxton by 21 points among Hispanic voters with 60 percent support from a voting bloc that Trump carried in 2024. The Democratic Senate contender had an even larger lead with independent voters in the CBS News survey - with 65 percent support among that crucial group compared to 35 percent for Paxton.
The CBS poll determined that Paxton's most substantial asset is the fact that he's the Senate nominee in Texas.
Talarico's razor-thin advantage was due in some part to his support from 5 percent of traditional Republican voters. Only 1 percent of the poll's participants who identified as Democrats gave Paxton nod in the Texas Senate battle.
Talarico remains the consensus favorite in the Texas Senate race even though his advantage in the polling in recent weeks has been smaller that it was last month. Talarico had an average lead of 2.7 points in the polls that were taken in September and October compared to an advantage of 2.2 points in nine polls on the contest at the top of the Texas ticket this month alone.
Talarico had the lead in 18 of 22 polls during the two-month span, Paxton was ahead in one and three showed the candidates running dead even. A Paxton internal poll that showed him ahead by 3 points last week was not included in the list of surveys on the Senate fight this fall.
Abbott was the leader in 10 polls on the gubernatorial competition in September and October while Hinojosa was in front in 5 surveys on the race during that time frame. The third-term incumbent governor had an average lead of 1.4 in the polling here in October and September. Abbott was up by 1.4 points on average in a handful of polls on the governor's race so far this month.
more to come ...
| 
