Texas Congressional General Election Prediction Markets August 30
Listed in Order of Potential for Partisan Turnover in the General Election November 3, 2026 |
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Texas GOP Would Get Net-Gain of One Seat
on Congress Map Based on the Betting Lines
Texas General Election Polls
General Election Rankings
Capitol Inside
August 30, 2026
Texas Republicans would register a net-gain of one seat on the Texas congressional battlefield if the candidates who were leading in the prediction markets Kashi and Polymarket on Sunday go on to win in November.
While the GOP appears poised to flip two U.S. House seats that Democrats currently control in the Houston and Dallas areas, the ruling party's candidates are running as underdogs on the legal betting platforms in three other Texas districts that the Republicans in Austin targeted for takeovers last year.
What's worse for the GOP prognosis on the state's new map is that Republicans could be on the verge of fumbling one of their own House seats to the Texas minority party based on the lines that Polymarket and Kalshi listed for Congressional District 15 today.
Kalshi had Democrat Bobby Pulido as a 55 percent favorite on Sunday after boosting his odds all the way up to 60 percent at the start of the weekend in a bid to unseat U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz in CD 15. Pulido's probability of winning was 57 percent today on Polymarket where the second-term incumbent was listed as a 53 percent favorite just a week ago. That calculates to a swing of 10 percentage points in the Democrat's favor in CD 15 in the past few days.
But Democratic nominee Johnny Garcia enjoyed the biggest surge on the trading platforms in a fight with the GOP's Carlos De La Cruz in the neighboring Congressional District 35 - a seat that the Republicans fully expected to flip at the polls this fall.
Kalshi boost Garcia's odds for victory by 10 points to 64 percent for a CD 35 contest that had been widely viewed as likely Republican until the race appeared to tighten in the past few weeks. The Democratic contender's probability of winning in CD 35 began the week at 55 percent on the rival site Polymarket before shooting up to 68 percent during the weekend - a swing of 13 points toward the minority party's nominee.
Republicans are running as prohibitive favorites in races for two of the five seats that the ruling party's members drew so they could flip - Congressional District 9 in the Houston area and Congressional District 32 in Dallas. But Democratic U.S. Reps. Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar both appear to have the inside tracks in two other House districts that Governor Greg Abbott has promised the president the GOP would pick up in 2026 in the Lone Star State.
That leaves CD 35 as the only Texas seat that Democrats control where there's no consensus on a favorite or underdog with 66 days left to go before the midterm election. If De La Cruz overcomes the Democrat's rapidly growing advantage in CD 35 and takes the seat for the GOP - and his sister who's the incumbent retakes the lead in CD 15 and holds on to win - the Republicans would emerge from the midterm vote with three more U.S. House seats in the Lone Star State than they have now.
In the event that both De La Cruz siblings go down at the polls 65 days from now, the Republicans could expect to have one more seat in the congressional delegation from Texas on a map that President Donald Trump ordered them to redraw last summer with five more districts for the GOP here.
Such a development would be a colossal failure for the Republicans in Texas where Governor Greg Abbott has repeatedly promised that the new U.S. House map would yield five more seats for the GOP. Republicans leaders and lawmakers in Texas ignited a war on redistricting across the nation with the collective attempt to please a president whose wrath they have feared for years.
The Texas effort prompted California Democrats to counter with the redrawing of their state's House map with five GOP seats targeted for conversions to blue. The Democrats in the Golden State flipped on of the target districts in a subsequent special election. Democrats are favored to flip the other four California congressional seats that were targeted in the voter-approved Proposition 50 as well.
more to come ...
| Texas Congressional General Election Forecasts 2026 - Updated August 30 |
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| FORECAST |
CD 15 |
CD 35 |
CD 34 |
CD 23 |
CD 28 |
CD 9 |
CD 32 |
CD 24 |
| Split Ticket |
R 57% |
D 54% |
D 78% |
R 77% |
D 94% |
R 95% |
R 94% |
R 96% |
| RacetotheWH |
R 76% |
R 64% |
D 55% |
D 50% |
D 83% |
R 93% |
R 94% |
R 94% |
| DDHQ |
R 67% |
R 65% |
D 63% |
R 80% |
D 86% |
R 92% |
R 87% |
R 88% |
| FiftyPlus One |
R 75% |
R 63% |
D 60% |
R 83% |
D 75% |
R 98% |
R 95% |
R 97% |
| Cook Report |
Leans R |
Likely R |
Toss Up |
Likely R |
Leans D |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
| UVA-Sabato |
Toss Up |
Leans R |
Toss Up |
Likely R |
Leans D |
Safe R |
Safe R |
Safe R |
| Capitol Inside |
Leans D |
Toss Up |
Leans D |
Leans R |
Likely D |
Likely R |
Likely R |
Likely R |
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