TEXAS 25 Republicans, 13 Democrats FORECAST CD 32 CD 9 CD 15 CD 23 CD 35 CD 34 CD 28 NET Kalshi R 86% R 85% D 73% R 62% D 65% D 82% D 88% R +1 Polymarket R 88% R 82% D 73% R 61% D 68% D 84% D 86% R +1 Vote Hub R 90% R 87% D 68% R 57% D 59% D 86% D 93% R +1 Average R 88% R 85% D 71% R 60% D 64% D 84% D 89% R +1 CALIFORNIA 44 Democrats, 8 Republicans FORECAST CD 41 CD 1 CD 6 CD 22 CD 48 NET     Kalshi D 97% D 92% D 93% D 90% D 88% D +5     Polymarket D 96% D 97% D 96% D 90% D 89% D +5     Vote Hub D 99% D 99% D 95% D 83% D 88% D +5     Average D 97% D 96% D 95% D 88% R 88% D +5

Forecast Sees GOP with Net Gain of None
on New Map as Both Sides Flip Two Seats

Texas General Election Polls

General Election Rankings

Capitol Inside
September 25, 2026

After promising President Donald Trump five new congressional seats in Texas for the GOP, Texas Republicans appear poised to emerge as the biggest losers in a war on redistricting they started at his command with a net-gain of only one seat if the current favorites here all win in November.

The tentative Capitol Inside forecast for the fall has Republicans getting skunked in their bid to expand their majority on a redesigned congressional map in Texas where they would break even with Democrats when the major parties flip two seats apiece. The Republicans would pick up U.S. House seats in the Houston and Dallas areas as they've been heavily favored to do all year.

But Democrats would match that by flipping two South Texas seats and hanging on to three others that Republicans in Austin targeted for takeovers on a map they drew in special session last summer when they misread the electorate and failed to anticipate the blue wave that's bearing down on them now.

Democrats are heavy favorites to reclaim control of the U.S. House - and the Democratic Party has a better than even chance to take the U.S. Senate majority back as well in the upcoming midterm vote. Democrat James Talarico is the choice here in the Texas Senate race that the GOP may have been destined to lose when its voters gave longtime incumbent John Cornyn the boot in a primary runoff and nominated scandal-plagued Attorney General Ken Paxton to carry the torch for them instead.

What makes matters all the more embarrassing for Governor Greg Abbott and GOP lawmakers who hatched the redistricting map is the fact that California Democrats expect to run the table on a new House map they had no plans to draw until the Texans fired the first shot in a frantic attempt to please the president. Adding insult to injury, Governor Gavin Newsom and the Democrats in the Golden State made the Proposition 50 map conditional on the voters' approval after the Texas Republicans refused to give their own constituents the final say on their own plan.

The Republicans in Austin redrew the U.S. House map with expectations for a five-seat gain that they based on the wildly incorrect assumption that Trump's record support from Hispanics reflected a permanent political realignment in that critical voting bloc. But Latinos who backed Trump in 2024 based on promises about the economy are turning against him now in droves in a state where Talarico and Democratic gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa have been leading Paxton and Abbott by 15 to 30 points among Hispanic voters in the most recent polling on their respective races.

The Republicans targeted three congressional districts in South Texas for takeovers in 2026 on the map they reconfigured last summer on orders from the president. GOP lawmakers here deemed two other House districts that they control in South Texas to be safe. But Democrats are favorites now in four of the five South Texas congressional districts where Republicans thought they would win - and the odds for the fifth going blue this fall have been growing steadily in the past week.

Here are the 10 U.S. House races in Texas with the most potential for turnovers in the fall. The most competitive races for seats that are in play are ranked highest on the list.

1. Congressional District 15 - Democrat Bobby Pulido is the pick here over second-term U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz in the forecast for CD 15. Pulido, a Grammy-winning Tejano musician who'd been an unknown in the political arena, was a 73 percent favorite on Friday on the major prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket. It never occurred to the Republicans in Austin that a Democrat could win in CD 15 where Trump won by 18 points in 2024. Hispanics account for 78 percent of the voting age population in CD 15.

2. Congressional District 23 - Far right Republican Brandon Herrera's probability of winning has plunged 10 points or more in a district where the incumbent Tony Gonzales dropped out of the race after the primary election in the face of a scandal that revolved on allegations of adultery with a staffer who died when she set herself on fire. Polymarket listed Herrera's odds at 61 percent on Friday when his chances of victory were 62 percent on Kalshi. The election trackers at Vote Hub rated Herrera as a 57 percent favorite on Friday in CD 23 where 57 percent of voting age population is Hispanic. Trump beat Democratic Vice-President Kamala Harris by 15 points in CD 23 in the last general election.

3. Congressional District 35 - The CD 15 incumbent's brother, Carlos De La Cruz, was a significant favorite after eliminating State Rep. John Lujan in the primary runoff election in an Austin-area district that was dismantled and recreated with a chunk of San Antonio and rural counties. The forecast here sees Democrat Johnny Garcia as the candidate to beat in CD 35. The prediction markets agree - with Kalshi ranking Garcia as a 65 percent favorite on Friday when Polymarket listed the Democrat's odds at 68 percent in CD 35. Trump won by 10 points in CD 35 in 2024.

4. Congressional District 34 - U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez of Brownsville had an 82 percent chance of winning on Kalshi on Friday, 84 percent on Polymarket and 86 percent on Vote Hub on Friday. The GOP challenger Eric Flores predicted last week that a massive red wave would hit Texas in November. The forecast here has Gonzalez winning easy in CD 34. Trump defeated Harris by 10 points in CD 34, which stretches from the tip of the Rio Grande Valley to Corpus Christi. Latinos make up 74 percent of the population of people who are old enough to cast ballots this year.

5. Congressional District 9 - The GOP thought the newly-reconfigured CD 9 seat would be a cinch for a pick up when they remade the Houston-area district for a Republican to win. Trump won CD 9 by 20 points in 2024. But 59 percent of the voting age population is Hispanic in the new CD 9 - and Republican Alex Mealer's odds for a win over Democrat Leticia Gutierrez - which were consistently over 90 percent for months - fell to 85 percent on Kalshi and 82 percent on Polymarket this week. Capitol Inside shifted the CD 9 seat from likely to leans Republican on Thursday.

6. Congressional District 28 - One of five districts the Republicans thought they'd designed to flip, the CD 28 seat is expected to stay blue with a victory by veteran U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar of Laredo over the GOP nominee Tano Tijerina, the Webb County judge who switched parties to run for the seat. But the Republicans have never appeared to have a realistic chance of flipping the House district that's anchored by the southern border in a swath of the state where the VAP is 90 percent Hispanic. Trump won by 10 points in CD 28 in 2024. Every Republican in a Texas congressional, House or Senate district where the president beat the VP by 10 points or less could be in serious trouble this fall.

7-11. Republicans are heavy favorites to convert Congressional District 32 from blue to red while retaining Congressional Districts 24, 38, 22 and 2 despite that have fallen for the GOP nominees in races for all five seats. None of those seats - with the exception of CD 32 as an original target for the GOP - had been expected to be in play. At the rate the Republicans have been going - from a historically president to a Senate nominee with maximum baggage - the GOP could lose every one of these. It all depends on how deep the wave that appears to be a certainty at this point can go down the Texas ballot.

Coming: Capitol Inside forecasts for the Texas House and Senate and statewide contests in 2026.