Blue Wave Watch: Democrats on Cusp
of Texas House Majority with Gain of 12
Texas General Election Polls
General Election Rankings
Capitol Inside
September 27, 2026
History could be on the verge of repeating itself in Texas where the Capitol Inside forecast for the fall has Democrats with a net-gain of a dozen Texas House seats in a replay of the blue wave bombing that rocked the Republicans here in the first midterm vote on President Donald Trump's watch in 2018.
The tentative outlook here for the Texas Legislature's lower chamber has Democrats winning in 12 districts that the GOP is attempting to defend while the Republicans fail to flip a single one at the polls in November. But that could be a conservative estimate at a time when the political climate and conditions are worse for the Republicans than they've been during two dozen years of GOP rule in the Lone Star State. And it's not even close.
The general election will be a referendum first and foremost on the most unpopular president in modern times. But the down-ballot Republicans in Texas can expect a double-whammy with Ken Paxton leading the ticket as the GOP nominee in a U.S. Senate race that Democrat James Talarico is the favorite to win at the polls on November 3. The GOP majority in the Texas Capitol's west wing could be in the twilight stages as a consequence with Democrats in position to take the chamber back with victories in 14 House districts that Republicans control now or more.
The tally could be higher if the oncoming wave goes full-scale tsunami - an outcome that Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick appears to fear based on internal polling that shows two Texas Senate Republicans in surprisingly close races with Democrats in districts Trump won by more than 20 points in 2024. Patrick's candid admission about the danger that a pair of senators who'd run as prohibitive favorites for months are facing now raised the specter that an era could be about to end across the rotunda in Austin.
The House's first-term speaker - Lubbock Republican Dustin Burrows - probably can expect to see his run with the gavel come crashing to an end if Democrats pick up a half-dozen seats or more. Democrats carried Burrows to a victory over the GOP caucus nominee in the leadership election last year. But Burrows has alienated a significant number of the Democrats who backed him in 2025 on the gamble that he could win a second term in January with Republican support exclusively. That would be a first for a Republican speaker in a state where there have been a total of five since 2003.
Republicans got a preview of what to expect this fall when Democratic State Senator Taylor Rehmet won a special election runoff in January in Tarrant County against Patrick's handpicked candidate - Leigh Wambsganss - in a district where Trump beat Democrat Kamala Harris by 17 points less than two years ago. Patrick promised for months that Wambsganss would prevail in a rematch in the general election. But Rehmet, who beat Patrick's pick by 14 points, could win in a landslide if GOP Senators Bob Hall of Edgewood and Charles Schwertner of Georgetown are really knotted up with Democrats in races no one expected to be competitive the way Patrick says his poll shows. Trump won by more than 20 points in 2024 in Senate District 2 where Hall is the incumbent. The president defeated the vice-president by 23 points in Schwertner's Senate District 5.
House leaders have played down the threat of significant Democratic gains - claiming to be performing stronger than Republicans in statewide races on the ballot above. But 36 Republican state House seats are on the ballot in districts the president won by 21 points or less in the last general election. All could be play if Patrick's numbers on the Senate contests are credible.
Capitol Inside has shifted several races for legislative and congressional offices in favor of the Democrats during the weekend in the rankings for the Texas general election in 2026. The seats that GOP State Reps. Caroline Harris Davila of Round Rock and Lacey Hull of Houston are seeking again were shuffled from the toss up column to leans Democrat. Fights that feature Republican State Rep. Denise Villalobos of Corpus Christi and Jorge Borrego of San Antonio on the defensive were moved from leans to likely Democrat. House races with State Rep. John McQueeney and Ellen Fleischmann as the GOP nominees were relocated from leans Republican to the coin flip list.
The House District 80 seat that rookie Republican State Rep. Don McLaughlin of Uvalde is running to keep has been shifted from safe to leans GOP - a highly rare move across two columns. Trump won by 23 points in HD 80 in the last general election - the same margin of victory he scored in the Schwertner Senate district that Patrick is concerned about losing. Eighty-two percent of McLaughlin's constituents are Hispanic. Trump won a majority of the Latino votes in South Texas districts in 2024. But Democratic gubernatorial hopeful Gina Hinojosa and Talarico have been leading their GOP foes by 15 to 30 points among Hispanics in polls on their races throughout the summer.
Democrats have been favored for months in the South Texas House districts where GOP State Rep. Janie Lopez of San Benito, Villalobos and Borrego are fighting to protect seats for the current majority party here.
Democrats would post a 9-seat gain if they won five races for House seats that are currently ranked here as leans or likely Democrat while adding four more to the count with victories in half of eight contests that are listed now as toss ups. That means that several Republicans who are still favorites would be out the door after the vote if the damage for the GOP in the legislative chamber that's the ground zero of Texas politics is as bad as it appears to be shaping up to be just 37 days before the vote.
more to come ...
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