5 Seats Targeted for GOP Takeovers and 2 Seats Democrats Could Flip
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| FORECAST |
CD 32 |
CD 9 |
CD 15 |
CD 23 |
CD 35 |
CD 34 |
CD 28 |
NET |
| Kalshi |
R 88% |
R 78% |
D 87% |
R 57% |
D 72% |
D 88% |
D 93% |
R +1 |
| Polymarket |
R 87% |
R 78% |
D 87% |
R 58% |
D 69% |
D 88% |
D 93% |
R +1 |
| Vote Hub |
R 93% |
R 81% |
D 81% |
R 58% |
D 67% |
D 89% |
D 95% |
R +1 |
| Average |
R 89% |
R 79% |
D 85% |
R 58% |
D 69% |
D 88% |
D 93% |
R +1 |
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Texas Dem Cracks 70% on Prediction Market
and Leads by 4 on Average in Two New Polls
Texas General Election Polls
General Election Rankings
Capitol Inside
October 29, 2026
Texas Democrat James Talarico appeared to be on track to flip a U.S. Senate seat and peaking at the perfect time with a probability of victory that sailed to all-time highs on the major prediction markets before a new CNN poll released on Thursday found him up on Republican Ken Paxton by a half-dozen percentage points.
The CNN/SSRS survey of Senate races in swing states showed Democrats leading GOP foes in Michigan, Maine, Kansas and the Lone Star State. Michigan's Abdul El-Sayed had the largest advantage with an 8-point lead over Republican Mike Rogers. Democrats Troy Jackson and Adam Hamilton were in front of incumbent Republicans Susan Collins and Roger Marshall by 4 points in Maine and Kansas respectively in the CNN poll.
Talarico clung to a two-point lead over Paxton in a Texas Southern University poll that was made public on Thursday morning as well. The Barbara Jordan survey of 2,000 likely voters found Governor Greg Abbott up on Democrat Gina Hinojosa by 3 points while Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, Attorney General hopeful Mayes Middleton and agriculture commissioner nominee Nate Sheets all led Democratic opponents by 4 points.
Comptroller Don Huffines and Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham both were in front of Democratic challengers by four points in the TSU poll while Republican Bo French was in front of Democrat Jon Rosenthal by 1 points in the race for the Texas Railroad Commission in the Houston university's latest survey on the statewide contests on the midterm ballot.
Conducted over the course of a week that ended Tuesday, the CNN survey of 923 likely Texas voters showed Talarico with support from 49 percent compared to 43 percent for Paxton. The Democrat was ahead in Texas by 8 points in a You/Gov poll for a Democratic group that was made public on Wednesday. A YouGov survey for Univision during the third week in October found Talarico leading Paxton by 5 points in the Texas Senate competition.
Talarico had led Paxton by 3.2 points on average in nine polls on the Texas Senate race in the past 10 days. Talarico has been ahead by 3.1 points on average in 21 polls that were taken on the Senate race here in September and October.
Democrats would take control of the upper house in Congress if they prevail in the Senate fights in the four swing states that were tested in the CNN/SSRC poll. The Democrats are heavily favored to reclaim control of the U.S. House at the ballot box on Tuesday.
Talarico - a state representative from Austin - appeared to be on the verge of a surge for the campaign's closing days when he upstaged President Donald Trump at dueling rallies on Tuesday night in the dark red bastion of Lubbock. No candidate for political office below the White House had ever held a campaign event on the same day in the same town as a U.S. president and drawn a crowd that was just as big if not considerably larger.
Talarico's chances of winning hit 70 percent on Thursday morning on the prediction platform Polymarket for the first time in the fight with the state attorney general. The Democrat was listed today on Kalshi as a 69 percent favorite in the Senate battle in the nation's second largest state.
Abbott's odds have been heading in the opposite direction of the Democrat in the Senate race. The third-term incumbent's probability of Hinojosa at the polls next week plunged to record lows of 63 percent and 61 percent early Thursday on Kalshi and Polymarket respectively. Abbott's odds bounced back up to 65 percent on Polymarket later Thursday morning.
more to come ...
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