Updated September 20, 2026 |
|
| FORECAST |
CD 15 |
CD 35 |
CD 23 |
CD 34 |
CD 28 |
CD 9 |
CD 32 |
| Kalshi |
D 69% |
D 62% |
R 66% |
D 74% |
D 85% |
R 87% |
R 86% |
| Polymarket |
D 69% |
D 65% |
R 65% |
D 76% |
D 86% |
R 87% |
R 88% |
| Vote Hub |
D 63% |
D 58% |
R 62% |
D 84% |
D 92% |
R 86% |
R 90% |
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Governor Abbott Odds Fall to Record Lows
as Talarico's Hit New Highs in Senate Race
Texas General Election Polls
General Election Rankings
Capitol Inside
September 20, 2026
Democrat James Talarico's chances of winning a U.S. Senate seat climbed to record levels as Governor Greg Abbott's fell to all-time lows during the weekend as the prospects for a perfect storm in Texas appeared higher than ever 44 days before the midterm vote.
The Democrats found themselves as improbable favorites in a second statewide contest when Jon Rosenthal's was listed at 58 percent on the prediction market Kalshi and 55 percent on Polymarket on Sunday in a bout with Bo French for a seat on the Texas Railroad Commission. French - like all of the GOP nominees in statewide contests with Paxton's exception - had been a substantial favorite until a week ago when he was accused of racist behavior after posting a picture of University of Texas students who are Asians at the Ohio State football game in Austin the night before.
Kalshi boost Talarico's probability of victory to 60 percent on Sunday - a swing of a dozen points in the Democrat's favor compared to GOP foe Ken Paxton's odds there a week ago in the wake of the GOP's midterm convention in Dallas. Polymarket elevated Talarico to a 60 percent favorite on Saturday - an increase of 4 points over his rating there the day before.
While Abbott remained a fairly significant favorite over Democrat Gina Hinojosa, his probability of victory dipped 5 points in two days to 78 percent on Polymarket on Sunday when Kalshi had it at 79 percent - a 3 point drop since Friday.
The Republican governor's winning probability dropped 5 points to 78 percent in the Vote Hub forecast on Saturday. The election tracking site Race to the WH gave Talarico a better shot at beating Paxton at 75 percent on Sunday than Abbott's odds for a win against Democrat Gina Hinojosa that dropped to 74 percent there this weekend.
Talarico was a favorite at 61 percent on average when seven major election trackers and the two major prediction platforms were calculated together on Sunday. Abbott, whose odds were over 90 percent on Kalshi and Polymarket for months, had a 77 percent chance of defeating Hinojosa on Sunday based on the average when the four forecasts are added together.
Paxton a month ago had been ranked as a 58 percent favorite on Kalshi - and he'd reclaimed the lead with odds as high as 53 percent there when the convention in Dallas ended last week. But Paxton had been expecting to surge after the event - and the bump he got immediately after it appears in hindsight to have been an illusion.
The Republicans' odds in the hottest Texas congressional races took a hit during the weekend as well. Democrat Bobby Pulido's probability of success jumped 8 points to 69 percent on Kalshi on Sunday while rising 4 points on Polymarket to 69 percent - both record highs in a fight with Republican U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz in a South Texas district where President Donald Trump won by 18 points in 2024.
Vote Hub rated Pulido as a 63 percent favorite on Saturday. But De La Cruz is still projected as the eventual victor in Congressional District 15 in several other tracking forecasts - a sign that the seat is still up for grabs despite the Democratic challenger's surge on the prediction markets.
Democrat Johnny Garcia enjoyed the biggest surge in the projections for the new U.S. House map with a vault of 8 points on Polymarket to 65 percent in a bid for a Congressional District 35 seat that the Republicans in Austin dismantled and recreated in a swath of South Texas east of the San Antonio area. Kalshi bumped Garcia up 6 points to 62 percent during the past two days for a battle with Republican Carlos De La Cruz in CD. 35.
The GOP nominee in CD 35 is the brother of the incumbent De La Cruz in the neighboring CD 15. Trump beat Kamala Harris by 10 points in the reconfigured CD 35. Republican state lawmakers redrew the Texas congressional map in special session in the summer of 2025 at Trump's command. They based their expectations for a gain of five seats for the GOP on the assumption that Republicans on the 2026 ballot would run as strong as Trump did in their districts two years ago.
The CD 15 and CD 35 races are the only two on the Texas map in districts where one party or the other is not a substantial favorite to prevail. The Democrats have a slight edge in those two contests that could go to the wire. The Republicans would have to settle for a net-gain of one U.S. House seat if all of the Texas candidates who are favored on the prediction markets hold leads to the finish line.
But the national conditions are much worse for the GOP than they've been for either party in decades as the candidates near the stretch before the second Trump midterm vote. The Republicans hope that an infusion of $100 million or so for advertising on Paxton's behalf will make it possible to reverse their sagging fortunes. They will hope it isn't too little too late at a time when nothing's going their way.
more to come ...
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