Texas Governor Odds Sink to New Lows
as Dems Favored in Senate and RRC Bids Texas General Election Polls
General Election Rankings
Capitol Inside
September 23, 2026
With Texas Republicans circling the wagons in the path of a potentially monstrous blue wave, Governor Greg Abbott's probability of a victory in a quest for a record-breaking fourth term dropped 10 points in a week in the eyes of the oddsmakers on the major prediction markets that had him at an all-time low again on Wednesday.
Kalshi listed the third-term incumbent as a 72 percent favorite on Wednesday afternoon. The rival site Polymarket listed Abbott's odds at 73 percent on Wednesday. Kalshi and Polymarket had Abbott's chances for another win rated at 82 percent and 83 percent respectively exactly one week ago.
The election tracking platform RacetotheWH lowered the Texas governor's odds for a win in November by seven points on Wednesday to 71 percent while Vote Hub cut Abbott's victory probability five points to 78 percent today.
Democrat James Talarico's odds for a win against Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate race in Texas jumped on four major election forecasts on Wednesday - with the trackers at the RacetotheWH at the high end at 77 percent - a bump of 2 percentage points. The Split Ticket election model gave Talarico a 2-point boost as well today when he was listed there as a 65 percent favorite in the Texas Senate race.
The Democratic Senate contender's odds went up 4 points on Wednesday in the projection for the Texas race on Vote Hub, which switched the ranking on the contest from toss up to leans Democrat. The FiftyPlusOne forecast on the Senate fight in Texas flipped today from the toss up category to leans Democratic today as well.
Talarico hovered in the past week in the 60 percent vicinity on the major prediction markets. Kalshi listed Paxton as the favorite as high as 53 percent during and immediately after the Republicans' midterm convention in Dallas two weeks ago.
The state attorney general expected to surge after his appearance on the stage at the event that the party staged as a tribute to President Donald Trump. But Paxton's have fallen sharply since that point on the trading platforms that have given Texans and other states where gambling is prohibited an opportunity to wager legally on politics, sports and other events.
The Democrats have a growing shot at a second statewide win this fall with Jon Rosenthal's odds for a win against Republican Bo French hitting a record high today on Kalshi, which listed him as a 59 percent favorite in a race for the Texas Railroad Commission. Polymarket gave Rosenthal a 54 percent shot at a victory in the statewide fight for one of three seats on the commission that regulates the oil and gas industry here.
Rosenthal ran for months as a substantial underdog before a massive surge in the past 10 days as a consequence of French's posting of a University of Texas football fan picture on social media that's been widely described on both sides of the aisle as racist. Abbott and other Republicans on the statewide ticket above the RRC may feel like French is to partly blame for the tightening of their own races as a result of the tempest he ignited with the photo of Asian students at the UT game with Ohio State that the Longhorns won.
Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick's probability of victory over Democrat Vikki Goodwin are almost identical to Abbott's on the prediction market sites. Kalshi listed Patrick as a 72 percent favorite on Wednesday when Polymarket had his odds at 71 percent.
Mayes Middleton had the highest odds for a Republican in a statewide race here - with Polymarket listing him as 77 percent while Kalshi had him at 80 percent. Kalshi listed Republican Nate Sheets as a 79 percent favorite in the state race for agriculture commissioner on Wednesday.
Abbott's camp spent Wednesday pointing fingers after Hinojosa led the governor by 3 points in a NPR/Marist poll that was released the day before hours after a Texas Southern University survey found the incumbent ahead by 4 points. The governor's race has been dead even in the four most recent polls - but Abbott's campaign isn't buying the narrative on the governor being in dire straits. Abbott consultant Dave Carney claimed on Wednesday that the Marist poll was designed to give Hinojosa an edge and incorrectly portrayed in news stories as an independent gauge of the race.
"Wow! How gullible?," Carney asked in a post on X. "Most ‘politcal’ reporters can’t read a poll, even if their next free Happy Hour depended on it. The question being asked should be: How do the TX Dems report Marist poll as a in-kind gift? Cause polling registered voters v. likely voters 29 days from day one of voting has but one purpose — prop up Dems. How many fall for this gimmick?"
more to come ...
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