N+ Univision/YouGov poll | 10/13-10/21 RV US Senate Texas 2026 ??James Talarico 50% ??Ken Paxton 45% Link to poll: https://t.co/XgvWwz9Tha https://t.co/MeZU6Quc6c

— Politics & Poll Tracker ?? (@PollTracker2024) October 27, 2026

Talarico Gains Latino Support Across Board
En Route to 5-Point Lead in Univision Survey

Texas General Election Polls

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Capitol Inside
October 27, 2026

Democrat James Talarico had a five-point lead over Republican Ken Paxton on Tuesday in a new Univision/YouGov poll that found him gaining ground with Hispanic men and women and Latino voters of all ages in a fight for the U.S. Senate in the midterm election one week from now.

The Univision/YouGov survey showed Governor Greg Abbott up on Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa by only 2 percentage points - putting the contest inside the margin of error in the latest sign of a thriller finish shaping up for the third-term incumbent's re-election bid.

The poll for the Spanish-language television company was released as President Donald Trump prepared to hold campaign rallies in Lubbock and Corpus Christi on Tuesday afternoon. Paxton has continued to wrap himself in the president after admitting that Trump hurt his campaign with the midterm convention that he had the GOP stage in Dallas on the Texas Senate contender's behalf in the second week of September.

Trump has returned to Texas three times since the Dallas event - appearing three weeks ago at a rally in San Antonio that drew about 6,600 people to the Freeman Coliseum. Trump initially planned to visit Waco today before switching the second event to the coastal city.

Trump scored 69 percent of the vote in Lubbock County two years ago when he received 65 percent in McLennan County where Waco is located. Corpus Christi provides the president with a more strategic location in Nueces County where Trump won 55 percent of the vote in 2024.

Democrats haven't carried Nueces County in a presidential election since Bill Clinton won there in 1996. Abbott beat Democrat Beto O'Rourke by 8 points in Nueces County in 2022. Trump won by almost 12 points there in 2024.

Talarico was favored by 50 percent of the voters in the Univision poll compared to 45 percent who gave the nod to Paxton. Abbott was ahead of Hinojosa 48 percent to 46 percent in the poll that was conducted over the course of eight days ending October 21.

Talarico led Paxton by 2.7 points on average in 18 polls on the Texas Senate race so far in October. The governor's race has been closer - with Abbott in front of Hinojosa by 2.2 points on average this month. Both races appear destined to go to the wire with the potential to swing either way at the polls on November 3.

A sub-sample with 980 registered Latino voters found Talarico faring better among men and women in that critical voting bloc and those in every age group than he had in a Univision poll early last month. Talarico was the choice in the Texas Senate race for 55 percent of the Hispanic voters in the October poll compared to 37 percent for Paxton - putting the Democrats up by 18 points with the Latino electorate.

Hinojosa led Abbott by 9 points among Hispanics in the Univision/YouGov survey in October with support from 52 percent.

The Hispanic voters in the Univision sample trusted Democrats more on 11 of 12 issues that were tested. The Republicans' only advantage came on the topic of border security where they had an edge of two-points among Latinos in the survey.

Forty-eight percent of the Latino voters in the poll opposed the location of data centers in their communities compared to 25 percent who approved.

more to come ...