Siena Poll Shows Dem Leading Abbott by 4
while Emerson Finds Gov Up in Close Race
Texas General Election Polls
General Election Rankings
Capitol Inside
September 17, 2026
Talarico Lead over Paxton
on Prediction Sites Wider
than Ever in Senate Race
Texas Democrat James Talarico's probability of winning a U.S. Senate race jumped to record highs Kalshi and Polymarket on Thursday for the second time this week when both prediction markets showed Governor Greg Abbott's odds for a win in November at all-time lows.
While Talarico's chances of beating Republican Ken Paxton shot up to 57 percent on both major prediction platforms, Abbott's victory probability in a fight with Democrat Gina Hinojosa fell to 76 percent with drops of 8 points on Kalshi and 6 on Polymarket today.
Talarico's odds rose one to three points in a handful of forecasts on election tracking sites on Thursday - with a boost of 2 points to 62 percent in the Silver Bulletin projections for the Texas race and 3 points to 61 percent in The Economist's updated projections for the fall.
The Democratic state representative's chances for a win in the Texas Senate race ranged on Thursday night from 54 percent in the Decision Desk HQ forecast to 75 percent on RacetotheWH. |
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Gina Hinojosa jumped out in front of Governor Greg Abbott for the first time on Thursday when Democrat James Talarico had his largest lead in a month in the U.S. Senate race here in a new poll of the Texas electorate that was taken during and after the GOP midterm convention in Dallas last week.
But a separate survey that was released Thursday morning showed Republican Ken Paxton in a dead heat with Talarico in the Texas Senate race that the Democrat led by a single point while Abbott was up on Hinojosa by 3 points in a gubernatorial contest that was a statistical deadlock based on the margin of error.
A Siena/ReconMR poll of 624 likely Texas voters September 8-11 found Hinojosa leading the third-term governor by 4 points with support from 49 percent of the sample. The Democratic state representative's best showing up to now had been in a Univision/YouGov survey that her tied with Abbott at 47 percent apiece a week before Republicans gathered in Texas for two days last week for their first-ever convention before a midterm election.
Talarico had a 6-point advantage over the Republican state attorney general with 49 percent support in the Siena/ReconMR survey that was conducted during a four-day stretch that began the day before the event and ended the day after it adjourned.
The Siena poll found Democrat Vikki Goodwin leading Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick by 1 point while GOP State Senator Mayes Middleton had a 1-point edge on Democratic colleague Nathan Johnson in the attorney general's race.
While the Siena/Recon poll sent shock waves through GOP circles in Texas and beyond, partisan Republicans found their anxiety tempered some by a dueling Emerson College survey that was in line with almost all of the previous polling on voter preferences here for an election that's just 46 days away.
The Emerson poll had Talarico up on Paxton by 1 point with 47 percent support. Abbott led Hinojosa 48 percent to 45 percent in the fight for governor here in the Emerson College survey. The governor had been ahead of the Democrat by 3.3 points on average in eight polls that were taken here in August and September.
Talarico led Paxton by 3 points on average in nine polls that tested Texas voters in August and the first half of September. The Texas AG's only lead in the Senate race since June came in the last Emerson poll in the first half of August that found Paxton in front by one point. Talarico was in front in 17 of the 18 most recent polls on the Texas Senate competition.
The Siena/ReconMR poll was its third on the Texas Senate and gubernatorial contests here since the first week of June when a survey found Paxton and Talarico running even and Abbott leading Hinojosa by 5 points. The first two were conducted for the Bush School at Texas A&M University. But Texas A&M was not involved in the poll that was made public on Thursday.
Abbott's lead shrunk to 1 point in a second Siena/ReconMR poll in late July when Talarico was in front of Paxton by 4 points. Talarico's lead widened to six with the poll today.
Paxton has been expecting to surge in the polling as a direct effect of the midterm convention that President Donald Trump had the Republican National Convention stage in Dallas as a way to boost the Texas attorney general and nominees in other races around the country that are close.
But Trump took the punch out of the praise that he dished out to Paxton at the midterm convention by making fun of his physical appearance, the clothes he wears and the way he speaks.
more to come ...
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