Texas Senate and RRC Races Inside MOE
in New Poll that Finds Abbott Ahead by 4
Texas General Election Polls
General Election Rankings
Capitol Inside
September 22, 2026
A new Texas Southern University poll shows Democrat James Talarico up by one point on Republican Ken Paxton in an epic U.S. Senate battle in the Lone Star State where Democrat Jon Rosenthal trailed tempest-sparking GOP foe Bo French by only 2 points in a fight for a seat on the Texas Railroad Commission.
The poll of 1,800 likely voters for the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center found the candidates running even in the Texas Senate and RRC races that were both within a 2.31 percent margin of error. Talarico was favored by 47 percent of the voters in the survey compared to 46 percent who expressed support for the state attorney general in the Senate race.
French, who's faced an extreme backlash from derogatory social media posts about foreign students at the University of Texas, had support from 44 percent compared to 42 percent for Rosenthal in a RRC contest that had received almost no attention until the past week.
The other Republicans on the statewide ticket in Texas had leads that ranged from 4 to 8 points in the TSU poll that was released on Tuesday. Governor Greg Abbott was the most popular GOP nominee in the survey with 49 percent support and a 4-point lead over Democrat Gina Hinojosa in a contest that the third-term incumbent entered as a substantial favorite at the outset in a state where Democrats haven't won statewide since 1994.
Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick was ahead of Democrat Vikki Goodwin by 6 points with 47 percent support. GOP nominee Mayes Middleton led Democrat Nathan Johnson by five points with 47 percent support in a fight for Texas attorney general.
Republican Don Huffines was in front of Democrat Sarah Eckhardt by 8 points with 47 percent of the voters giving him the nod in the Barbara Jordan school survey as well. Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham was up by 8 in the new poll with 47 percent in a fight with Democrat Ben Flores. Agriculture commissioner candidate Nate Sheets led Democrat Clayton Tucker by six points with support from 45 percent.
Paxton could try to portray the poll's findings as a win based on the fact that he'd been two points by Talarico with 45 percent support in the last Texas Southern University poll on the Senate race in July. Talarico's support was the same in the two most recent TSU polls at 47 percent. But Paxton scored one point higher in the new survey to move within a single point of the Democrat who's led him in the 12 most recent polls and 19 of the last 20 polls on the Senate race in Texas.
But Paxton had expecting his support in the polling to spike after the GOP midterm convention that was held September 9 and 10 in Dallas. While Paxton's camp that he's surged in internal polling since the event that was hatched as a way to honor President Donald Trump while giving Republicans like the Texas Senate contender a boost for the closest races.
Talarico has led Paxton by 3 points on average in the polls that have been taken on the Senate race here in the past two months.
The TSU poll was conducted over the course of four days that ended Saturday. Rice University political scientist Mark P. Jones and TSU's Michael O. Adams directed the poll.
more to come ...
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