NPR/Marist Poll Shows Dem Up on Gov
while Talarico Leads Paxton by 6 Points
Texas General Election Polls
General Election Rankings
Capitol Inside
September 22, 2026
Third-term Texas Governor Greg Abbott trailed Democrat Gina Hinojosa for the second time in two weeks when a poll that surfaced on Tuesday night found her up by 3 points while Democrat James Talarico matched his largest lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate race in the past four months.
The NPR/Marist University survey of 1,139 registered Texas voters during the past week showed Hinojosa in front of Abbott with 49 percent support. The Democratic state representative from Austin seized the lead over Abbott for the first time in a Siena/ReconMR poll that was conducted here during the first two weeks of September.
The NPR/Marist poll found Talarico with a 6-point advantage over Paxton, the state's attorney general for nearly 12 years, with support from 50 percent of the participants. Talarico led Paxton by 6 points in the Siena University survey earlier this month. A Texas Public Opinion Research poll in August showed Talarico, who's a Texas House member from the Capitol City as well, ahead of Paxton by a half-dozen points in August.
The Republicans were faring better in a Texas Southern University poll that was made public on Tuesday morning with Talarico leading Paxton by a single percentage point while Abbott was ahead of the Democratic challenger by 4. Talarico has led Paxton by 3 points on average in eight polls on the Texas Senate race so far this month. Abbott in contrast has been up on Hinojosa by only 2 points on average in four surveys that tested voters on the competition for governor.
Abbott's probability of winning in November dropped 5 points on the prediction market Kalshi on Tuesday night when it was listed at 71 percent. But the governor's odds plunged 10 points tonight on the prediction platform Polymarket, which had as a 69 percent favorite tonight. Abbott's chances for a victory had been over 90 percent on both Polymarket and Kalshi when he spoke almost two weeks ago at the GOP midterm convention that President Donald Trump had the party stage in Dallas for the sake of giving candidates like Paxton as much-needed boost.
Paxton had been counting on a post-convention surge that has failed to materialize. Paxton's odds had been as high as 58 percent on Kalshi in August - and after falling behind Talarico on the prediction site - the Texas AG was bounced back into the lead during and immediately after the rally with probability of victory as high as 53 percent.
But Paxton's chances of winning have plunged on the prediction markets - and Talariico was the favorite at 62 percent on Tuesday night on Polymarket and 59 percent on Kalshi.
After failing to get the bump he anticipated from an appearance at the event here with Trump, Paxton is hoping now that a massive infusion of cash from the Senate Leadership Fund's super PAC and Trump's MAGA Inc will be the lifeline that he needs to keep an underachieving campaign afloat.
Paxton's close association with the president doesn't appear to be paying off in a state where the NRP/Marist poll found Trump 12 points on under water with a 43 percent approving of the job he's doing in the White House compared to 55 percent who viewed his work in a negative light.
But Paxton was substantially more unpopular than Trump in the Marist survey that found that 54 percent disapproved of him - 19 points more than an approval rate at 43 percent. Abbott was 8 points under water with 43 percent of the Texas voters rating him favorably while 51 percent turned thumbs down. Talarico's approval rating was one point more than his disapprovals at 46 percent. Forty-one percent approved of Hinojosa as opposed to 30 percent who disapproved.
If it's any consolation to the Texas governor, 68 percent of the voters in the NPR/Marist poll said they believe he will win.
more to come ...
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