Texas Senate Race Slides to Leans Dem
as Abbott and Patrick Bids on 50-50 List
Texas General Election Polls
General Election Rankings
Capitol Inside
August 9, 2026
Do you believe in magic? The answer is an unequivocal absolutely if you're U.S. Senate nominee Ken Paxton and the Republicans who are counting on President Donald Trump to save them from a Texas November nightmare at a time when they have nothing else going for them besides the R beside their names.
But the line between denial and delusion could be a fine one for the Republicans who refuse to believe the polls that show Democrat James Talarico leading the Texas Senate race while expecting a president who's never been more unpopular to be the rabbit in the hat as their midterm messiah. Paxton, the state's third term attorney general, appears to be totally dependent on a Trump rescue ride to Texas in September as a candidate who's shown no signs of fighting his way back into the lead on his own.
Capitol Inside shift the Texas Senate race on Sunday from toss up to leans Democrat in the rankings for the 2026 general election based on a long list of factors that have perfect storm potential in a way that makes the blue wave here in 2018 look tame. But Paxton's performance at the top of the ticket could put the GOP's entire cast of statewide candidates in danger of losing if he fails to step up his game for a bid that's floundered since he put it on hold for a European vacation in early July.
Capitol Inside shift the Texas Senate race on Saturday night from toss up to leans Democrat in the rankings for the general election based on a long list of factors that have perfect storm potential in a way that makes the blue wave here in 2018 look tame. But Paxton's performance in the crowning race on the Texas ticket could put the entire cast of statewide candidates for the GOP in danger of losing if he fails to step up his game for a campaign that's floundered since taking off during the peak of summer for campaigning.
All of the statewide contests for non-judicial posts below the Senate bout have been moved in the direction of Democrats as a result of the fact that the Republicans are tied inextricably to Paxton and the president whose approval ratings have been stuck at rock bottom in the mid to low 30s for months. The races that feature Governor Greg Abbott and Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick doing battle with Democrats Gina Hinojosa and Vikki Goodwin respectively are classified as coin flips in the revised rankings for the fall.
Five other statewide contests are rated leans Republican for the time being even though they could fall like dominos if Talarico becomes the first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate seat in Texas since 1988 and Abbott fails to provide the seawall that minimizes the down-ballot destruction for the majority party at the polls November 3. The quality of the candidates, the experience they offer and the money they've raised would be rendered effectively irrelevant if a Democratic tsunami in a league with the first midterm election on Trump's watch slams the ruling Republicans here again in the Lone Star State.
Forget the fact that the third-term governor has raised more than eight dollars for every one that the Austin state representative who's challenging him has rounded up for her gubernatorial quest. Forget that the third-term lieutenant governor ended June with 111 times more cash on hand that Goodwin, who's a Texas House member from the Capitol City as well. The state's top two leaders are running scared like never before even though neither would ever admit they weren't ahead and certain of victory.
Capitol Inside has shuffled Congressional District 15 fight from leans GOP to toss up as a fight that pits Republican U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz against Democrat Bobby Pulido in a swath of South Texas that Trump won by 18 points in 2024. The House District 96 contest that's open in the south part of Tarrant County has been relocated from leans Republican to the 50-50 list as well. House District 97 where rookie Republican John McQueeney is running again could follow the neighboring HD 96 to the toss up column at some point if Paxton fails to step up his game at the top of the ticket.
Six other Texas House seats that Republicans are attempting to defend are still ranked as toss ups like they've been throughout the summer. Three Republican House seats remain in the leans Democrat column in races that look increasingly bleak for the GOP as a consequence of Paxton and Trump and the adverse down-ballot impact they could have for the majority party here in the vote on November 3.
Paxton has been viewed as a slight favorite by some of the country's top political analysts despite Talarico's lead in the seven most recent polls that have been taken on the Texas Senate race in the past six weeks. But the state attorney general's odds of winning have evaporated on the prediction market platforms, which have had him as the favorite up to now despite Talarico's lead in all of seven polls that have been conducted on the Senate race since the last week of June.
Kalshi listed Talarico on Saturday night as a 51 percent favorite after having Paxton's chances of winning as high as 58 percent less than a month ago when its traders gave Talarico a 42 percent shot at the Texas seat. That computes to a swing of 18 points in Talarico's favor on the legal betting platform Kalshi. The trading site Polymarket still had Paxton at 51 percent on Sunday.
Talarico led Paxton by 3.3 points on average in six polls on the Texas Senate that were taken in July. No candidate for a major office in Texas has won after trailing in the polls here during the past two dozen years. Stay tuned for the rankings of reasons why Talarico is the favorite in the Texas Senate battle here ...
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