Talarico and Abbott Both Lead by 1 Point
in New Poll for Conservative Group TPPF
Texas General Election Polls
General Election Rankings
Capitol Inside
September 2, 2026
Democrat James Talarico led Republican Ken Paxton by less than 1 point in the U.S. Senate race in Texas in a new poll that was released on Wednesday with Governor Greg Abbott ahead of Democratic foe Gina Hinojosa by a single percentage point just two months before the 2026 midterm vote.
Conducted by a new firm Overton Insights for the Texas Public Policy Foundation - a conservative think tank based in Austin - the survey found that 55 percent of the voters in the sample think the GOP's rally in Dallas next week with President Donald Trump will have some level impact on the election this fall.
The assignment of import to the event that's being billed as the Great American Comeback Midterm Convention comes amid revelations that a significant number of Republicans in Congress are planning to skip the event amid ostensible scheduling conflicts and other excuses for their expected absences.
Some GOP partisans in Texas fear that the two-day event in the heart of a city that's been solid blue for years could hurt Republican chances in competitive contests as a consequence of Trump's record low approval marks, discontent over his handling of the Iran war and the economy and his push for data centers that are highly unpopular in rural areas.
The Overton poll for the TPPF found that 44 percent of 1,167 likely voters who were tested last week approved of the job that Trump is doing in his second term in the White House. Fifty-six percent of the voters in the survey disapproved of Trump's work as the president. But almost 49 percent "strongly disapproved" of the job that Trump is doing as the nation's chief executive compared to 31 percent who strongly approved.
The TPPF survey showed Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice-President JD Vance with 30 percent and 29 percent support respectively in a question on preferences for the GOP nomination in the 2028 presidential contest. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was fourth with 11 percent while U.S. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas was next as the choice of 6.5 percent of the poll's respondents.
Six percent favored Tucker Carlson while 4.5 percent gave Donald Trump Jr. the nod. The Texas governor who's been eyeing a run for the presidency as well was not listed as an option for the White House sweepstakes two years from now. Former Vice-President Kamala Harris was favored by 28 percent of the Democrats in the survey with Pete Buttigieg as a distant second at 14 percent as potential contenders in the next race for the nation's top political prize.
The poll for TPPF found that 57 percent of the voters who participated plan to vote in the Republican primary in 2028 compared to only 32 percent who expect to vote across the aisle in round one that year. The poll showed that 10.5 percent said they didn't plan to vote in either major party primary in the 2028 White House race.
The Overton Insights survey marked the third time in the past six weeks that Abbott had been up by only 1 point on Hinojosa, who like Talarico is a state representative from Austin. The poll was only the second in the past two months that showed the candidates in the Texas Senate fight separated by 1 point or less.
Talarico led Paxton in nine of 10 surveys that were taken here in July and August. The state attorney general was ahead of the Democrat by 1 point in one poll in that two-month span before the release of the poll for TPPF today. Talarico led Paxton by nearly 3 points on average during that period of time.
more to come ...
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