Talarico Only Dem with Lead in New UH Poll
that Finds GOP Ahead in 7 Statewide Races
Texas General Election Polls
General Election Rankings
Capitol Inside
October 19, 2026
A new University of Houston poll was released on Monday with Democrat James Talarico up by 2 points on Republican Ken Paxton in the nation's most closely-watched U.S. Senate race while seven other GOP candidates in Texas statewide contests led Democrats by five points on average.
The Hobby School of Public Affairs poll found Governor Greg Abbott ahead of Democrat Gina Hinojosa by 3 percentage points with support from 49 percent of 2,000 likely voters who were surveyed October 10-14. Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick led Democrat Vikki Goodwin by 5 points with 47 percent support in the new UH poll that showed Comptroller Don Huffines and Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham with the largest advantages on the statewide ticket with 7-point leads over Democrats.
The UH poll found Republican attorney general hopeful Mayes Middleton leading Democratic foe Nathan Johnson by five points with support from 47 percent of the voters who participated. GOP nominee Nate Sheets was in front of Democrat Clayton Tucker in an open fight for state agriculture commissioner in the Hobby School survey.
The fight between Republican Bo French and Democrat Jon Rosenthal for a seat on the Texas Railroad Commission was tied statistically in the new University of Houston survey. French led Rosenthal by 2 points with 45 percent support - a sign that a relatively significant number of voters haven't made up their mind on the RRC contest. The UH poll has a margin of error of 2.19 percent.
The Hobby School survey painted a relatively optimistic picture for the Republicans in down-ballot statewide races here compared to a University of Texas poll that was taken a week earlier this month. The UT poll found Republicans trailing Democrats in seven of the eight statewide contests on the ballot in the midterm election that got under way in Texas on Monday with early voting.
Talarico had led Paxton in 23 polls that were taken on the Texas Senate race in September and October - according to Capitol Inside's ongoing analysis of the polling on the major races here. Paxton was in front in two with a lead of 1 point in one of those and a half-percentage point in the other. An internal Paxton poll that showed him with a 3 point lead wasn't factored into that equation.
But Talarico had an average lead of 2.7 points in 11 polls on the Senate contest in October - and that means Paxton still has a decent shot at victory after running as the underdog for nearly four months. Paxton is counting on Elon Musk to bail out a campaign that's floundered with the pouring of almost $160 million into a super PAC backing the state attorney general for the Texas Senate seat.
Talarico - state representative from Austin - is hoping that Musk's largess backfires as a result of his close association with historically unpopular President Donald Trump.
Paxton “moved here from California like Elon Musk," Talarico said in a post on X on Sunday. "Why is it always the Californians that say don’t California my Texas.”
A three-point lead in the new UH poll is a relatively good sign for the third-term Texas governor who's led Hinojosa by 1.1 points on average in seven surveys on the race this month.
more to come ...
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