Talarico Has Largest Lead Yet in Newest Poll
after Upstaging Trump in Deep Red Lubbock
Texas General Election Polls
General Election Rankings
Capitol Inside
October 28, 2026
James Talarico took his biggest lead to date over Republican Ken Paxton on Wednesday in the latest poll on the U.S. Senate race in Texas on Wednesday after the Democrat accomplished something the night before that had never been done in the Lone Star State or anywhere else in the U.S.
Talarico was up on Paxton by 8 points with 51 percent support in the new poll that YouGov conducted for the Texas-based group 254 Labs. The 254 Labs/YouGov survey found Governor Greg Abbott trailing Democrat Gina Hinojosa by 3 points while Democratic nominees had leads between two and four points in down-ballot statewide races for lieutenant governor, attorney general and the Texas Railroad Commission.
Talarico was in front of the state attorney general by 6 points in four separate polls that were taken on the Texas Senate race in September and October. A University of Texas poll in April found the Democrat leading Paxton by 8 points in a hypothetical match-up before the AG claimed the nomination when he unseated 24-year Senate veteran John Cornyn in a primary runoff election in May. The new YouGov survey marked the first time he'd been ahead by 8 points since Paxton emerged triumphant in the runoff a week after securing an endorsement from President Donald Trump.
But it's conceivable that Talarico could surge in the final weeks before next week's midterm election after upstaging the president on Tuesday night in red bastion of Lubbock with dueling rallies two miles apart in a county that Trump won by 40 points in 2024. Talarico drew a crowd of 4,000 to the Fiesta Center.
A story in Newsweek estimated Trump's audience to be about the same at the Lubbock Memorial Civic Center. But the piece noted that the maximum capacity for Trump's venue is 4,914 - putting the president's audience at 81 percent of the official ceiling. The Talarico rally - in contrast - drew a crowd that was 131 percent above the Fiesta Center's official maximum capacity.
If the Trump and Talarico rally crowds were roughly the same size, Republicans who were portraying the president's rally as the biggest political gathering in Lubbock history arguably have more cause now for embarrassment after learning that a Democratic state representative from the most liberal Texas city attracted just as many people or more to an event there on the same night.
The fete is all the more historic in light of the fact that no Democrat has carried Lubbock County in a presidential election since Texan Lyndon Johnson defeated Republican Barry Goldwater there by a dozen points in 1964.
Paxton and his allies are contending without apparent evidence that Talarico's campaign bused most of his rally participants in from other cities and states. If that's true, that would be another landmark achievement in and of itself for the Democrat in the Senate race.
The YouGov/254 Labs survey found Talarico favored by 51 percent of 1,000 registered voters compared to 43 percent who preferred Paxton. Hinojosa led Abbott 49 percent to 46 percent while Democrat Vikki Goodwin was ahead of Republican Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick 48 percent to 45 percent. Democrat Jon Rosenthal had a four-point lead over Republican Bo French in the race for Texas railroad commissioner in the YouGov poll for 254 Labs.
Talarico led Paxton by 2.9 percent on average in six polls on the Texas Senate contest in the past 10 days. The Democrat had an average lead of 2.8 percent in 19 surveys on the Senate race here in September and October. Abbott had been up by 2.3 points on average in the same 10-day span while he's led Hinojosa 1.9 points on average in 14 polls on the gubernatorial competition here in the past two months.
But Paxton remained undaunted by the fact that a state lawmaker who'd been unknown outside of the Capitol City at this time a year ago could draw as many people to a rally in a heavily-Republican location like Lubbock.
"WHAT A NIGHT in Lubbock!" Paxton exclaimed on X late Tuesday night. "Thank you, President Trump, the greatest president of my lifetime, for standing with me to deliver for Texas!"
Talarico shared his take on his own event on X. "Lubbock County voted for President Trump by 40 points," the Democratic Senate nominee said on X. "Tonight 4,000 people showed up at our rally. Texans are ready for change."
more to come ...
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